Senior cabinet minister Pat McFadden has cautioned Labour against assuming the magnitude of the majority the party won in July would “automatically” see it win the next election.
The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster said the government would need to deliver upon the promises on which it was elected if it wanted to secure a second consecutive win.
McFadden issued the warning in an introduction he wrote for a new report seen by LabourList and set to be launched today by the Social Market Foundation think tank. It is the first in a series of reports on restoring trust in politics.
He wrote: “It would be a category error for anyone in politics to believe the size of the majority we were given on 4 July will somehow automatically translate into victory at the next election. Politics today is far too volatile for that thought to be entertained.
“We will only be trusted at the next election if we can show we have acted on the mandate we were given at the last election.”
McFadden added: “Trust is too precious a commodity to be cast aside. Politicians cannot accept defeat and mildly submit to the idea of a low trust society. Trust is the essential currency which enables every part of our society to function.”
He writes: “Keir Starmer knows that simply saying ‘trust me’ won’t work. Government has to show, not tell. It has to demonstrate by its actions it will focus on sorting problems out and not sell the moonshine of the easy glib answer.”
The government will not “claim everything we do is ‘world beating'”, he adds, suggesting it will instead “sort out the challenges the country faces and deliver for a population that has been let down too many times in recent years”.
It comes as Labour’s polling in the wake of the general election has taken a turn for the worse, with a More in Common voting intention poll giving the party just a one point lead over the Conservatives this week.
🆕In today’s Playbook our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention has Labour’s lead at 1 point
🌹Lab 29% (-1)
🌳Con 28% (+2)
➡️ Ref 19% (+1)
🔶Lib Dem 11% (-2)
🌎 Green 7% (-1)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1)Dates: 5-7/10 n= 2023, changes with 24-25/9 pic.twitter.com/xcdvW92Now
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) October 8, 2024
Labour defeated the Conservatives at the general election in July with a landslide majority, taking 412 seats to the Tories 121. However, Labour won a record low share of the vote for a party winning with a majority, at 33.7% – with the Tories ten points lower on just 23.7%.
The theme of trust in politics featured heavily in Starmer’s inaugural speech as prime minister on July 5.
He said: “Politics can be a force for good. We will show that. We’ve changed the Labour Party, returned it to service – and that is how we will govern, country first party second.”
The SMF report was written by former Labour head of research Dr Steve Van Riel, now head of trust development for Europe at comms agency Edelman, which polls voters for its annual trust barometer.
Van Riel said: “It’s easy to say trust is important, it’s much harder to identify where trust matters most, and what we can do to increase it. But if we take public trust as seriously as we take GDP growth or NHS waiting times, then that’s the conversation policymakers need to engage in.”
Trust in government is at a historic low, falling from 45% in 2021 to only 30% in 2024, Van Riel’s paper points out. When compared to the bulk of private and public sector organisations, and scientific experts, politicians and government are generally distrusted.
READ MORE: ‘The stakes are high. Labour must truly listen to voter’s concerns’
But Labour’s drop in the opinion polls has come against the backdrop of policies including the contentious winter fuel allowance cut – which has seen visible discomfort on the party’s ranks – and weeks of headlines around the freebies controversy.
The next general election is not due for several years, with the latest possible date it can be held falling on August 15, 2029.
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