‘Could a second Trump presidency actually be good for Starmer?’

Donald Trump’s second term as US President poses a unique challenge to the Labour government.

Trump Redux would have represented a danger to most administrations wanting to protect the British national interest whatever their party complexion. But for Labour the threat comes in the form of a novel pincer movement.

Keir Starmer needs to manage both, but in contrasting ways. The first threat comes from Trump. He has little time for US-led multilateralism, long the cornerstone of west European – and British – security.

The re-elected President’s vision of his country’s interests ends at its borders. Hence, he expects Britain and other NATO members to pay more for their own defence while threatening tariffs on goods they export to the US.

Trumpism is back

Britain is especially vulnerable to the whims of the White House. The US is the country’s most important trading partner so any tariffs will dent Starmer’s ambition to increase economic growth.

Similarly, Trump’s demand that NATO members increase defence expenditure to 5% of GDP would, if met, hurt investment in health and education given Labour currently only has vague plans to raise spending to 2.5%.

Some may pray the Special Relationship will save Britain. Surely, the right silken words in the appropriate ear will appease the savage Trump? That presupposes such a relationship – outside the sharing of intelligence – exists.

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In any case it is unlikely Trump will reward Starmer for any past loyalty to the US shown by previous Labour prime ministers especially as he considers the Iraq invasion a ‘big, fat mistake’.

Furthermore, Trump’s courtiers think Labour Britain a woke dystopia: after Starmer became Prime Minister, Trump’s running mate JD Vance even called the United Kingdom the “first truly Islamist country” to possess a nuclear bomb.

Within this context, a lonely Britain outside the EU has limited bargaining power. Of course, Labour will stand up for British interests.

But given Trump’s capacity to wreck the party’s re-election chances, anything other than the appeasement of his agenda, in the hope of winning some mitigation, looks to be the government’s most realistic response.

Managing the Special Relationship

That is presumably the logic of appointing Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington: Starmer will hope he can smooth relations the better to gather up vital crumbs from Trump’s table.

In dealing with the US, previous Labour governments usually enjoyed the support of the Conservative Opposition as they shared a broad assessment of the national interest. Brexit changed all that. The radicalisation of the Tories and the rise of Reform means there is no consensus to Labour’s right on how to deal with Trump.

For both parties of the right believe there is advantage in presenting themselves as Trump’s Little Echo and think his victory in November has given them a template for defeating Labour.

Nigel Farage has of course long been the UK head of Trump Fandom and where he leads Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have followed. And behind them, the right -wing media is so completely on board the Trump train a Daily Telegraph columnist recently called for Britain to become the 51^st state of the US.

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Labour’s attitude to this second threat should be very different to its response to Trump himself. For unlike the US President these British Trumpists actually hold few cards.

Despite what the right imagines, Trumpism holds little appeal to those beyond their hard-core supporters. Most Britons already believe a Trump presidency will be bad for Britain: should he impose tariffs, and make unreasonable demands on military spending, he is unlikely to become better loved.

If the returning President then forces Ukraine into an unwelcome peace with Russia – something Farage heartily supports – that will only further curdle Britons against him, given their continued support for Kyiv.

There is, then, scope for Labour to aggressively attack the ‘patriotism’ of those who slavishly support a foreign government whose policies harm the interests of British citizens. Using ‘patriotism’ against the right has been the ambition of all Labour leaders: Trump has given the party its chance, for the first time since the Second World War.

Populism on the rise

In any event, there is no guarantee the second Trump term will go well.

Many economists believe tariffs will ruin the US economy. Some of Trump’s nominations for federal office look like accidents waiting to happen. His control of Republicans in Congress is questionable.

So, Trump may well drag the US into years of disorder. If the British right think Trump an asset today, they may come to regret their association by the time of the next election.

Elon Musk’s bizarre tweets about Muslim ‘rape gangs’ that culminated in attacking Farage, his one-time comrade, highlights the dangers for British Trumpists of becoming too pally with the US right: they also reveal the opportunities Labour has to exploit such alliances.

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Economically Trump poses a huge risk to Labour. Politically British Trumpists – older readers might also see them as Quislings – will attack any response the government makes that falls short of obeisance to the White House.

If there is little a ‘patriotic’ Labour government can do about the first threat it has scope to deal with the second.

Finessing its approach to these dual threats will involve delicate tightrope walking of the sort Labour has yet to manage in its political communications: but how well it deals with these challenges will help determine whether Starmer wins his own second term.

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