‘Tinkering is not enough – 2025 has to be a year of genuine and significant change’

On the day that the House of Commons approved the second reading of the Assisted Dying Bill, and a local MP and colleague, Louise Haigh, stepped down as Transport Secretary, something else was happening in my city of Sheffield.

The count was taking place in a by-election for a city council seat. This area of the city is historically deeply working class, with links to the mining industry and what used to be described as “solid Labour roots”.

Sadly, the outcome of the count was inevitable, because here, in the real world outside the Westminster bubble and the confined ivory towers of Whitehall, the state of politics at the end of 2024 was all too obvious.

In this by-election – and the same has applied to around 40 percent of those that have taken place since the July general election – the battle for first place was no longer a contest that the Labour candidate could win. The Liberal Democrats took the seat but with a majority of just ten votes over the Reform Party, with Labour having lost two-thirds of its vote from last May’s local elections.

The significance of what has happened since July 4 can only be ignored by those who have never studied politics or history; or have not been sufficiently alerted as to what is taking place across the world.

‘Once people have made up their minds, it is incredibly difficult to change them’

Yes, we rejoiced on July 5th. How could we not be uplifted by such a significant overall majority? Albeit on a turnout of 60 percent and with 34 percent of the popular vote. Against all the odds we were, after all, in government! 

It was understood, by everyone I talked to, that one term in government would not suffice. Simply stabilising the economy, trying to bring decency back to public life and respectability to politics was never going to be enough. Labour, as from 1997, needed two, three terms in office to make a difference. 

I used the term “in office” but I really mean “in power”. Simply being “in office” doesn’t cut it. Nor does believing that unpopularity now can easily be turned round in the next four years.

READ MORE: Which Labour ministers did the most broadcast round interviews in 2024?

It is always possible, not least given the volatility of the electorate, to pull off miracles. In one sense, Keir Starmer did just that in July. But, as the Tories found, once people have made up their minds it is incredibly difficult to change them. In the case of the Conservatives, there was an absolute determination from Penzance through to the Western Isles that a change was vital, and that whatever the alternative, many people were going to take it. 

Not dissimilar to the post-2015 debacle when “anyone but Labour” was the order of the day. Going back to that mindset is a dangerous game, and appearing to seek unpopularity is a road filled with potholes and, yes, a desire for change. 

That is why Keir Starmer and colleagues were correct, on the 5th December, to discern that understandable and tangible milestones were needed in order to focus, but also relate, to the electorate.

‘Early profound change in people’s everyday life is a big ask for any politician, but we must try’

The problem, and it’s not an easy one to solve, is just how profound the desire for change really is? 

The message from across the world at this present time is clear. Tinkering will no longer be enough. 

Donald Trump’s victory in the US, and many signs across Western Europe, tell us that people are sick of just muddling along. 

That is why, in my view, 2025 has to be a year of genuine and significant change. The 30th October budget may have brought stability, and Keir Starmer’s standing on the international stage has started to restore Britain’s credibility, but for most people, things have not yet started to improve at all. 

Of course, it takes time. I should know that from the eight years I was in Cabinet from 1997. Resources are scarce, and early profound change in the everyday life for most people is a big ask for any politician. But we must try.

READ MORE: ‘Olaf Scholz’s fall from grace has crucial lessons for Starmer’

From outside, it looks, to me, as though, with some significant exceptions, the civil service has done what they do best. They have provided solid, reliable and traditional advice. They have drawn down on what they know, what they are used to; what the former Defence Secretary in the US, Donald Rumsfeld, called the “known knowns”. 

This is no longer enough. Those at senior level in Whitehall are comfortable. The people they know, those they eat and socialise with, are comfortable. Many, but not all, have a similar educational background and outlook on life. 

That is what Keir Starmer meant a month ago when he talked about “the tepid bath of managed decline”. Energising the whole system, whilst not alienating those you rely on is a tricky balance to achieve.

The Westminster-Whitehall bubble is worlds apart from those who, in July, voted for Reform in very large numbers. In fact, in 98 seats Reform came second. 89 of them, just behind Labour. So, whilst Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are unlikely to start reaping the rewards of Labour’s unpopularity and suddenly become flavour of the month any time soon, the dangers are written in bold on every wall.

‘If we don’t make a real difference to people’s lives, they will turn to someone else who promises to do so’

The outcome of May’s county council elections, and subsequent mayoral and Scottish parliament elections might not matter to those who have never been in devolved or local government. They might seem irrelevant from the corridors of Whitehall, but for the nature of how our democracy works, and not just the future success of the Labour Party, this can be devastating.

The problem is that “rewiring” needs to be about cultural and not just technological change. There has to be a complete alteration of mindset so that what is on offer is truly transformational. 

As we conclude the first six months of our government and look to what 2025 might have to offer, we need a thunderbolt. Stop putting up with second best, with clever arguments about why things can’t be done (or why they can’t be done quickly), and energise the whole of our society in bringing about rapid improvement in both living standards and the delivery of public services.

READ MORE: ‘Why Reform poses a threat to Labour among young men’

Irritating, even infuriating, as my message might be, it is, in one sense, very simple. If in the four years ahead, we, together, don’t make a very real difference to people’s lives, then they will turn to someone else who promises to do so.

Significantly, we need to convince our own newly elected members of parliament that they will, and can, be part of that process. That they stand a chance of being re-elected. It they don’t believe it, then their behaviour will reflect it; discipline on the backbenches, engagement with those grinding, everyday chores that make it possible to hold onto the electorate, and the energy and drive that comes from large numbers of younger, enthusiastic and now full-time politicians, will be lost. 

Surely, we must believe that we can do the right things, take the difficult decisions and still be popular. To believe otherwise is political suicide, and that would be unforgivable.

Oh, and just one final thought. Implement substantial cuts and the backlash will be significant. “Austerity” does not cease to be “austerity” just because a Labour government says it is not!

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