‘Why Reform may prove the party to beat in the Hull and East Yorkshire’

Last night, Nigel Farage appeared at a rally in Hull to announce Reform’s candidate for the upcoming Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election.

Speculation had been rife as to who the much touted “big name” would be.

In the end it was former professional boxer, Hull-born Luke Campbell, who took the stage alongside Mr Farage to an enthusiastic welcome from a crowd estimated at 2,000, all of whom had paid £4.50 entry for the privilege.

Who are the voters in Hull and East Riding?

Covering the three Conservative-held constituencies within the East Riding, and the three Labour seats in Hull, the new mayoralty has a population of around 622,000 distributed across the city of Hull and a largely rural and coastal East Riding.

This is where I was born, raised and live now.

These are my people. We can be a quirky lot.

Can we look to July 2024 to predict the outcome for 1 May?

In the 2024 general election I stood in my home seat of Beverley and Holderness where I squeezed the Conservative majority to 124 votes.

How likely is it, then, that I can bring it over the line for Labour on 1 May?

It would brave, not to say foolish of me to suggest that the mood for change which swept Labour into government continues to buoy our fortunes in the polls.

This, however, has not been matched by a corresponding resurgence in Conservative fortunes, but, it would appear, by a shift to Reform.

A four-way race

I am firmly of the opinion that this election cannot be viewed as the two- or even three-horse race so beloved of the Liberal Democrats.

With the two local council leaders – Anne Handley, Conservative (East Riding) and Mike Ross, Liberal Democrat (Hull) – both standing, each is fighting to burnish their credentials as a regional champion.

READ MORE: Mayor candidate unveiled in tough Cambridgeshire and Peterborough race

However, with Reform polling strongly in 2024 and pushing their way into second place in all three Labour-held constituencies in Hull, Mike Ross’s claim that only the Lib Dems can beat Labour for the new authority rings both tired and hollow.

With no other local council elections taking place on 1 May, turnout is likely to be low. In the 2024 Humberside PCC election, this fell just shy of 19%.

We may well be looking at a mayoral election where only 1 in 5 voters casts their ballot.

Local or general election voting intent?

Talking to people on the campaign trail, I am finding many are unaware of the imminence of the new authority and, of the ones who are, many are unclear as to what this actually means.

Given many voters commit their political support differently depending on the type of election, a view that this is a glorified local council contest may benefit the Liberal Democrats.

But with Reform gaining its first local councillors in the 2023, this is unlikely to hurt their chances either way.

How are the candidates aligning themselves?

As I mentioned above, the Liberal Democrats are positioning Labour as the party to beat.

Mike Ross’s materials are leaning heavily into exploiting the unpopularity of the winter fuel allowance cuts and, in the East Riding, on the changes to agricultural IHT, neither of which falls within the remit of the mayor.

Elsewhere his offer is thin on any firm policy offer much beyond promising to be “a strong voice for Hull and East Riding” to which one might reply: “I should hope so.”

Anne Handley is pushing a breezy line that she “knocks heads together “and “gets stuff done,” but is similarly thin on any firm offer beyond supporting local business. Again, one might hope she would.

Strong on sound bites, weak on detail.

READ MORE: West of England mayor candidate: ‘Buses and housing are the priority this election’

Reform have yet to produce their pledges, but they may struggle to put across a declared policy of introducing charges for health care access.

Similarly, their opposition to Net Zero could prove a hard sell in a region where green energy and decarbonisation industries are major local employers and investors and will prove key to local regeneration.

The challenge of the Reform vote

Although the Campbell name will be a decided attraction, local Reform supporters still declare they are “voting for Nige” and, in most other respects, voting against a whole raft of other things including what they perceive to be a superannuated political status quo.

But Reform offers few positive policies, trading instead on strongly declared positions (as on immigration) that resonate, especially in economically challenged places such as our coastal communities and in Hull.

My approach Is rooted in a clear and specific policy offer that we know resonates with voters locally.

This includes the introduction of a Mayoral Apprenticeship Scheme, a commitment on fixing potholes across the region, and free bus travel to the coast over the summer holidays, all of which are already landing well.

Labour’s challenge

With Reform confident of taking the mayoral election in Greater Lincolnshire and challenging hard in Doncaster on 1 May, the choice of local celebrity and sporting hero, Campbell, shows them hoping to pull off a hat trick in the North.

Whatever the results, the challenge remains for Labour – how to engage with disaffected voters and speak in a voice which those increasingly lured by the siren-call of Reform, are not only willing to hear, but also to heed.

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