Local elections expert predicts ‘bad night’ for Labour, with no net seat gains as Reform, Greens and Lib Dems advance

An election expert has predicted a “bad night” for Labour at the 2025 local elections next week, warning it is likely to emerge with overall councillor numbers virtually unchanged despite a likely collapse in the Tory vote.

Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and close election-watcher who correctly called the 1992 election, said that Labour “really should make gains” given he predicts the Tories could lose as many as 525 seats.

Instead he predicts Reform could gain as many as 450 councillors, particularly in the Midlands and North in seats which “should have gone to Labour”.

Labour goes into the election defending around 301 seats, though Hayward said boundary changes mean it is effectively only defending 280. But in a briefing for journalists, he said Labour would likely end the election campaign with only around 280 seats, give or take 25 seats in either direction – meaning virtually no net gains on polling day.

Losses feared in Doncaster, Durham and Lancashire

He predicted Labour would actually lose seats in Reform target Doncaster, in County Durham, where Labour had a majority for a century until 2021, and in Lancashire, where Gaza’s fate is expected to fuel support for independents.

In Doncaster, “on an awful night” Labour could lose control to Reform, despite currently holding 41 of 55 seats.

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The Tories are predicted to see their tally in seats they are defending drop from around 900, after boundary changes, to around 400.

Many seats he expects the Tories to lose “would, in other cycles, have gone to Labour”.

Good night for Greens and Lib Dems

Meanwhile the Greens are predicted to double their tally to around 70 councillors in the seats contested this year, and the Lib Dems to gain around 70 or 80 seats.

There will likely be an “unseen rise” in Green support too. “The party’s gains will not be concentrated in any one place and, like other parties, they may just miss a series of seats. Their prospects are as good as I have known them, but they are working from a very low base.”

Labour “may lose virtually all their seats” in Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire, as their county representation comes “overwhelmingly” from their university cities.

“Labour’s losses will be to Lib Dems and Greens, and will be on the basis of aid and welfare issues.”

Hayward stressed many contests would be a close fight, however. “Since we are in multi party politics and more seats being fought by more parties than ever before, I am expecting many seats to be won on extremely low percentages and therefore also by very tight margins.

“I am expecting many seats to be won with less than 33% of the vote.”

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