Exclusive: Labour still tops poll among Leave-voting Tory-Labour switchers

Labour is still the most popular party among Brexit-backing 2019 Conservative voters who switched to Labour in 2024, according to polling shared exclusively with LabourList.

The demographic, known as “hero voters” due to their outsized value as swing voters between the two biggest parties, were key to Labour’s landslide victory last July.

Polling commissioned by Field Consulting in partnership with Focaldata asked which party such voters would back if there were a General Election tomorrow.

Some 35% said Labour, 27% said Reform and 15% said the Conservatives.

Labour support much higher among men than women ‘hero voters’

Labour’s support is strongest among the 25-34 age group, at 58%. But decreases the older hero voters get, with just 15% of pensioners saying they would vote for the party again.

Labour is also the most popular party among hero voters aged 35-44.

However, it is overtaken by Reform as the most popular party for voters aged 45 and upwards, in a sign of the generational divide between the two parties.

Despite the party’s efforts to boost female representation in the Commons, Labour is also much more popular with hero voter men than hero voter women, with 44% of men saying they would vote Labour compared to just 29% of women. Reform is a close second among women at 26%.

READ MORE: Revealed: Labour’s financial woes as party unable to balance books this year

Hero voters who answered that they would not vote for Labour were asked why. Chief among the reasons given was the belief that Labour has not delivered on its promises, at 33%.

They were also asked to assess the importance of the Labour government’s priorities. Delivering economic growth came top, with 71% assessing it as “very important”, followed by reforming the NHS, at 69% ,and tackling illegal immigration, at 67%. The final four priorities then saw a steep drop in importance, with reforming welfare assessed as very important by just 46%, raising defence spending by 41% building 1.5 million homes by just 37%, and building a clean energy grid by 35%.

‘Tangible change is needed’

Vincent Fabri, head of research at Field Consulting and a former member of Keir Starmer’s strategy and insight team in the lead-up to the general election, warned Labour needs to turn its mandate into “tangible change”.

“This is not yet a crisis for the Government, but a clear call to action. Our research shows that these voters are not flocking back to the Tories, whose brand remains severely damaged, nor are they necessarily rejecting Labour’s vision altogether. While Reform UK has surged to 30% of support, a growing number remain undecided.

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“And crucially, while 60% say they support the party’s broad policy direction, only 35% believe Labour can deliver on their priorities. Therein lies the trust gap, and closing it is Labour’s most urgent task.

“In an era of growing ‘cake-ism’, hero voters are not demanding miracles, they are demanding tangible change. These voters, critical to Labour maintaining its majority, want real, visible progress on the issues that matter most to them: reforming the NHS, delivering economic growth and tackling illegal immigration.”

However, he said the most alarming part of the polling is that 24% of these voters say Labour no longer represents them.

“That’s not about policy detail, it’s about aligned values. These voters want a government that speaks their language, understands their struggles, and acts with urgency. Hero voters are more pragmatic than ideological. They want visible improvements, not culture war rhetoric.”

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