‘Even the spectre of Corbyn’s party could prove fatal for Starmer and Labour’

We still know very little about Jeremy Corbyn’s new party. Currently operating under the placeholder “Your Party”, its name, personnel and even its leader remain to be decided. Nebulous as this new political party remains, even the mere prospect of a resurgent British Corbynite Left is enough to cause Labour some serious headaches.

Labour has had a torrid first year in government. Keir Starmer’s personal ratings have plummeted, and the party is now averaging a paltry 22% in the polls. There have been several unforced errors, but fundamentally they are now experiencing the fallout from the widespread voter dissatisfaction and distrust that only 13 months helped deliver them a massive majority.

Currently, just two in five voters (39% according to Politico’s poll of polls) would vote for the two major parties. Both the Conservatives and Labour had a higher vote share in 2019 than the two parties combined today. In fact, Corbyn achieved 40% when he led Labour to a narrow defeat in the 2017 election (40%).  This fragmentation will only increase with the introduction of Corbyn’s party.

‘Corbyn is a threat that Labour should take seriously’

Hypothetical polling (which is historically unreliable and should be handled with caution) from More In Common suggests that “Your Party” could immediately jump to 10% in the national opinion polls. Whilst new parties have historically struggled to get off the ground (for example the short-lived Change UK), Corbyn is a threat that the Labour Party should take seriously, not least because of just how unpopular Keir Starmer is with the public.

YouGov polling suggests that just under one in five of the electorate are open to voting for a new Corbyn-led party (although a large majority of these are open to others too), including almost a third Labour 2024 voters. Crucially, YouGov also has Jeremy Corbyn with a higher net favourability and a higher raw favourability than the current Prime Minister, and more than two-fifths (43%) of Labour 2024 voters have a positive view of the former leader.

Our polling suggests this could just be the start. In a head to head against Keir Starmer, Jeremy Corbyn performs strongly in key areas amongst the general public, Reform voters and Labour 2024 voters who gave Keir Starmer his majority. Just under two-fifths (39%) Labour 2024 voters say Jeremy Corbyn better fits the description “Understands People Like Me” and a third (34%) say Corbyn is better at “representing Labour voters”. In a straight choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer more of the public opt for Corbyn on attributes such as “For working people”, “Represents Change”, and makes “Radical Decisions”.

May will provide sense of potential of ‘Your Party’

In fact, such is the dislike of current Reform voters towards Keir Starmer they prefer Corbyn to Starmer on all positive metrics apart from is “Good on the World Stage”. These include: “Understands People Like Me”, “Fun”, “Honest”, “Trustworthy” and “Principled”. Whilst this does not mean that Reform voters *like* Jeremy Corbyn, it underlines the strength of dislike felt towards the current Prime Minister, and ‘mainstream’ politics in general.

We are already seeing enthusiasm for Corbyn’s new party amongst the groups that you might expect. Four in ten younger voters are open to voting for ‘Your Party’, and he is the most popular politician amongst 16-17 year-olds (whom Labour have just given the vote). The potential support at the moment is stronger in London than in the Midlands, North and Rest of the South.

It is also thought the new party will include the four so-called “Gaza Independent” MPs, who will likely pose an even bigger challenge to Labour at the next election. There are 60 seats in the country where the number of votes won by ‘others’ (independents) was bigger than the majority, and most of these were on a Gaza ticket. We should be able to get a real sense of their potential to expand in May’s local elections in Birmingham and London.

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‘Voters have been unsure what Starmer stands for’

However, it is not just amongst these demographics or in these urban areas that Labour should worry about Corbyn and whatever it is his new party turns out to be. Regardless of whether Corbyn’s party succeeds there will be a desire for voters to the left of Starmer’s Labour for more ‘authentic’ representation.

Keir Starmer’s recent U-turns on a range of issues including Welfare Reforms and his anti- immigration rhetoric “Island of Strangers” speech explains why attributes regarding authenticity, principles and honesty are some of Keir’s worst performing. Since he became leader Starmer’s floating principles have been a consistent line of attack, first by Boris Johnson and then Rishi Sunak. Turning against his own speech on immigration will only serve to alienate more voters as his principles and honesty come into even greater question. Voters have consistently been unsure of what Keir Starmer stands for, and that is only getting worse.

Just half of those who voted Labour in 2024 have a clear or broad idea of what Keir Starmer stands for, down from 75% prior to the election. His lack of principles make him the opposite of a conviction politician and it is no surprise his two greatest political threats, Farage and Corbyn, are politicians who have consistently drawn attention due to their radical, but seemingly authentic, views on immigration and/or austerity. Even the spectre of a Corbyn-party is enough to sharpen these attacks on Starmer, and could prove fatal for the embattled PM by the time of the next election.

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