Handy Andy? Can he fix it?

The leadership ambitions of Andy Burnham are being discussed. So far, so normal. What’s less usual is that it is Andy Burnham himself discussing them. Not coyly, not hinting – but outright saying that Labour MPs are asking him to run against Starmer for the leadership.

Burnham has officially run for the leadership of the Labour Party twice and despite winning neither time, his ambition has never really dimmed. He has successfully run Greater Manchester as Mayor since 2017, winning three times – each time with over 60 per cent of the vote. His popularity and his outspoken advocacy of the region has led to him being dubbed ‘King of the North’.

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His popularity in both the Labour Party and the country has grown and he now regularly tops – or comes close to the top – of popularity polling among politicians.

There are, however a number of obstacles that stand between Burnham and a successful tilt at the leadership.

Firstly, he would need to be an MP. There has been much talk about a seat within the region of his mayoralty becoming vacant. Andrew Gwynne (currently suspended from the Party) has been rumoured to be considering retiring on grounds of ill health. Graham Stringer, widely expected to stand down at the next election, might have been persuaded to bring his retirement forward. Both have publicly said they won’t do so. Finding a seat to run in might prove more challenging than people think.

Then there is the not insignificant question of if Burnham would be allowed to run by the NEC. The Labour Party’s governing body is tightly controlled by allies of the Prime Minister. They may decide that they do not allow Burnham to go forward as a candidate were a vacancy to arise. He would have to resign as Mayor – as legally he cannot be an MP and a Police and Crime Commissioner. The fear of a byelection for Manchester Mayor – and all the circus that would bring – might be excuse enough for the NEC to deny him the chance.

Then, of course, he might not win any by-election. Burnham has enormous levels of national recognition and local support in Greater Manchester. But Labour would still be fighting against the current prevailing tide of Reform whom they trail in the polls at present. That party would throw everything at any by-election. Such a high profile victory would be a huge boost to their image as a potential party of government.

But also, it is easy to see that Andy Burnham would be seen as a bigger threat to Farage than Starmer. He’s got the ‘man of the people’ status that Farage covets (and, sadly, often manages to convey) for himself. They can both be populists and are both exceptional media performers. It is easy to imagine why Farage would not want to see Burnham win a seat in Parliament and potentially the Labour leadership.

Defeat in such a by-election would be a humiliation for both Burnham and Labour. The party would not forgive him if he lost – and it would also be a definitive end to his career. This is hardly a risk free option. That he is clearly seeking to take that risk means he thinks the ultimate reward will be worth trying.

However, it is not just Burnham’s path to Parliament that is strewn with obstacles. Once there, he would have to convince 80 of his new colleagues that he is the right choice to take on Starmer. Indeed he would have to convince them that this is the right time and right decision to topple Starmer at all.

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He may find that while there is a lot of discontent in the PLP – that discontent is either not ready to coalesce around a candidate nor is it quite ready to ditch a leader who – let’s not forget – led them to one of Labour’s most successful election victories ever. The days of backbenchers being described a ‘Starmtroopers’ may well be behind us. That does not mean they are ready to make such a clear and decidive break with the leadership. There may well be a sense of “yeah, but not now”. That ‘now’ might come around the local elections. But if Starmer is able to steady the ship by then, it might never come. And then Andy Burnham is stuck on the backbenches. No longer King of the North, no longer a contender.

The final obstacle he may find on this perilous (and thus far only hypothetical) journey is actually the Labour membership. Much like the PLP they too are feeling pretty battered by some of the missteps of the past year. They might be looking for someone to deliver, well, CHANGE.

On the face of it, Burnham’s pitch is not dissimilar to Starmer’s when he ran for the leadership. Its a similar Soft Left policy prospectus. However, there are some parts that might put the members (who are often more moderate than the public imagination would have you believe) off. Burnham’s language on borrowing is being likened by some Starmer loyalists to Liz Truss and if the markets look spooked that may also frighten off some Labour members. Equally, Labour’s membership is disproportionately London based. Could some of Burnham’s rhetoric against the Capital cost him with that important set of voters?

None of which is to say that Andy Burnham is definitely going to take any or all of these steps. We’ve been marched at least partway up this hill before. We know the view on the way down. This may be pre-conference fever that melts away if Starmer has a good conference and delegates report back happy to their CLPs.

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Equally, none of the obstacles I have outlined here are insurmountable. It will be perfectly possible for Burnham to leap all of these hurdles. He’s a deft politician who has only grown in stature in recent years.

While at the start of the month or even the week all eyes were expected to be on Starmer for what feels like a make or break conference (though again, that’s something we’ve heard before) now much of the attention will be on Burnham. How both men deliver over the coming week will be the talk of Liverpool – and Westminster.

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