‘For Labour to win, they must turn Scotland’s energy potential into real change’

With less than 9 months to go, the Holyrood election will be Scottish Labour’s biggest test since July’s General Election, when voters backed change.

They wanted an end to rising costs, fundamental differences in day-to-day life and for promises to be delivered. And it has become clear that people plan to, and will, keep voting for change until they feel it in their own lives, most of all in their bills.

When it comes to energy, the truth is that change has not yet been felt. This week, Ofgem confirmed that the cap on a typical dual-fuel bill will rise by 2% to £1,755. For households that have lived through years of hikes, even a modest increase reinforces the sense that little is improving.

At the same time, Reform is using energy and net zero as a political football and the SNP continue to argue that only independence can deliver cheaper power. Ultimately, bills remain high and trust in politicians to fix it is low.

The debate is not just about bills

But can things get better, and how do we get there? At iNHouse Communications, I lead key work on policy, and in Scotland, we commissioned independent polling on attitudes to energy north of the border. Findings paint a bleak picture. More than eight in ten Scots (81%) expect their bills to rise in the next 12 months, and almost the same proportion (78%) expect bills to rise over the next five years. That level of pessimism is corrosive, suggesting that voters do not believe the system is working and have little confidence that politics can turn it around.

But the debate is not just about bills. Almost half of Scots (45%) said they believe energy will be one of the biggest drivers of economic growth in Scotland over the next five years, with nearly a third saying it will be the single biggest sector in Scotland’s economy. Crucially, Scots see the best route to reducing bills as expanding renewables like wind, solar and hydro. People connect energy to far more than what they pay each month. They link it to jobs, investment and Scotland’s wider future in the UK economy.

It is this gap between expectation and delivery where the SNP are most exposed, when it comes to energy. After 17 years in the Scottish Government, in the eye’s of voters Scotland’s natural energy advantage is still tied up in stalled projects, planning delays and grid bottlenecks.

Ahead of the next election, this is both a warning and an opportunity, with 36% of voters in Scotland still undecided as to who they trust to reduce their energy bills. While rising bills feed distrust that change is possible, voters already see renewables and energy investment as the route to economic renewal. The political task is to bridge this gap and to show how the policies they put in place will translate into visible change in people’s lives.

While expectations were raised that bills would fall quickly, the reality is twofold: they have risen rather than fallen, and there is no overnight fix. The difference, however, is that Labour can point to the building blocks it has put in place to deliver what it believes could unlock the credible investment pipeline that Scotland, and the UK, needs. That includes establishing Great British Energy to invest directly in clean power, a ten-year Industrial Strategy to cut costs and attract private capital, and grid reform to speed up connections.

Costs continue to rise

The problem is that people don’t feel it yet. Labour talks about bills, energy security and jobs, but for many voters this still sounds abstract when costs continue to rise. The challenge of getting to net zero is real. It will take huge investment, and no government finds it easy to announce billions in new spending. While people know climate change is a problem and most support action, they also need to see how it connects to their own lives. If net zero only sounds like cost, disruption or threats to existing industries, the argument will be lost.

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That is why Labour has to continue to, especially in Scotland, frame the energy transition around material outcomes that can be felt by people, through secure jobs and investment flowing into communities if they want to win in 2026. It is not enough to argue that policies are in place to get there; people need to feel and see the benefits. That means showing that investment in clean energy is a way to secure economic renewal, grow industry and deliver security for families. It means putting energy jobs at the heart of the agenda, with clear links to apprenticeships, local investment and skills.

That is how to build trust in the mission and how to show that Labour’s plan can make a difference.

The next nine months are the chance for both Labour, and the SNP, to prove it. Offshore wind, storage and grid capacity in Scotland are essential to delivering the UK’s 2030 clean power target. If Scotland falls behind, the UK falls behind. If Scotland succeeds, it will be at the heart of Labour’s economic growth mission.

That is why Holyrood matters so much. This election is not just a test for Scottish Labour, but a test of whether voters believe the UK can deliver the change they voted for last summer. The story Labour needs to tell is not only that Scotland can power the UK, but that Scottish families and communities will feel the return.

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