Tory targets and what Labour can learn from them

As reported by the brilliant Daniel Green, the Tories are currently selecting 61 candidates early for seats currently held by Labour. They are also selecting 14 candidates to fight the Lib Dems (currently busy fighting among themselves at their conference). They are targeting three of the seats currently held by Reform.

Early selections are interesting for a number of reasons. They show where parties are likely to put their energy and resources and where their data shows they might be in with a chance.

All the seats chosen have the Tories in second place, which can be read in two ways. The simple ‘Occam’s Razor’ reading is that it makes perfect sense to target seats where you are the closest challenger party.

While Labour has experienced a poll bounce giving them a small lead against the both right wing parties, Reform has so far failed in their stated mission to replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Most polls show the two parties neck-and-neck as Reform’s polling numbers have dropped over their difficult summer.

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As many have said over the past few months, the ‘stop Reform’ vote has hardened and swing voters are looking at who their best option is to beat them. That this doesn’t seem to have factored into Tory thinking might, just might, be an indication that the traditional party of the right is not prioritising fighting Reform – or thinking about appealing to that anti-Reform vote. This would match their new rules around what kind of candidates they are (and are not) willing to select. But does leave a widening gap in appealing to the kind of traditional ‘one nation’ Tory voter that made up so much of their voting base.

The Tories have put no seats in either Scotland or Wales on this list of early selections.

The party lost 13 seats in a Welsh wipeout in 2024, but they did come in second in 10 out of 32 seats there. They came second in five seats in Scotland and Badenoch’s party recently won a by-election in a seat they came third in at the 2024 general election.One would, therefore, expect a UK-wide party to be looking at how they build back in all of the nations and regions. But these early selections show a focus only on England – something that will not counter claims that they are an English-only party.

These selections are not Labour news per se, but they do offer an interesting piece of data for incoming General Secretary Joe Fortune. Knowing where your opponents are focused helps us to plan a defensive campaign (and with a landslide majority, defending as many seats as possible will be essential). The Tories may well see an advantage in embedding candidates in their target seats early. But it also reveals where Labour should be putting resources to support their most vulnerable sitting MPs.

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Of course, all the chatter about these selections will devolve immediately into discussions about whether or not Andy Burnham will call an early election. So much political ‘news’ coverage now is, in fact, nothing of the sort. Instead it is endless speculation and discussion of the horse race. The truth is, no one knows whether this will happen. Any decent political analyst could make a case either way.

What we do know is that whenever the next election comes, Labour will need to be ready. That is why the series of essays by our chair Karin Christiansen on the inbox of the new General Secretary is such vital reading. I urge all our readers to take a look and let us know your thoughts. 

The Tories and Reform may be in a standoff. Labour’s polling may have improved. But it is still going to take all of us to make sure we get to retain power at the next election and keep delivering for the people we were elected to serve. So share your ideas on how the party campaigns and organises; how we can innovate and grow; and what has worked for you in your area. 

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