Poll List: Tories “in meltdown” as YouGov slashes lead to two points

From LabourList / @LabourList

Continuing a trend threatening to spread panic through Tory ranks, The News Of The World leaked early this morning that the Conservatives are “in meltdown” as their lead over Labour has shrivelled to just 2%.

With Labour and the Conservatives gaining and dropping two points respectively, this latest YouGov/Sunday Time poll raises the prospect that Gordon Brown would secure more seats than David Cameron if the figures were borne out with a theoretical universal swing.

Although Labour supporters will permit themselves a deserved smile today, as Daniel Finkelstein wrote in The Times this week:

“All the published and private polls in marginals show a much bigger swing to the Conservatives in battleground seats than the national figures suggest”. Many observers, like UK Polling Report’s Andrew Wells, will wait for further fieldwork to confirm this significant swing:

“It could just be sample variation – or it could be a further narrowing of the lead. With just a single poll, it’s impossible to tell. All I can say is what I always say when a poll shows sharp movement – until we see some more polls that support or contradict the further narrowing of the polls – be wary.”

But there can be no doubt that this latest contraction provides an extremely unwelcome backdrop to David Cameron’s much-trailed speech to Conservative Spring Forum later today, where he will reportedly tell delegates it is his “patriotic duty” to defeat Gordon Brown.