An electoral pact would hurt Labour, but it could destroy the Lib Dems

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

This morning the Independent reported that consideration is being given to an “informal pact” between the Tories and the Lib Dems at the next general election should the AV referendum be successful. Under the pact, each party would encourage a second preference vote for the other party. If this plan proved successful this could lock Labour out of many seats, and could even cause Labour to lose seats that it currently holds.

Perhaps it is a coincidence that information on this potential pact is released the day that the Lib Dems slump to just 9% in the polls, but I’m not so sure. The suggestion of an electoral pact might look like a liferaft for a struggling party – and suggest that Cameron wishes to continue in coalition government – but in reality it’s a weight that could pull Clegg’s party under.

Many within the Labour Party are already sceptical of the benefits of AV, and worry that it could lead to more coalition governments, with Labour locked out of power by Tory/Lib Dem power-sharing. It is possible that rumours of a potential electoral deal (which the article suggests is a Tory idea) are being released in a bid to force the Labour Party into effectively opposing AV for fear of the repercussions.

Without Labour support for the “Yes” campaign for AV though, there is little chance of the referendum passing. If the Lib Dems don’t get AV, they’ll have sold out on their principles for nothing more than poor poll ratings and a few ministerial cars – and under First Past The Post, they’d be judged most harshly.

The Lib Dems should be careful before climbing inside the liferaft of an electoral pact with the Tories – they may find themselves pulled under the waves by it.