We need a late selection date for choosing our 2016 London mayoral candidate

May 6, 2012 10:30 am

Ken Livingstone has dominated London Labour politics since before I was born. Ed Miliband was eleven when Ken Livingstone became the leader of the Greater London Council. Today, Kennism (to rhyme with Bennism) stands twice-rejected by the voters. Labour members in London, for the first time in thirty years, will now have to reinvent what the party offers to the city. In no other region or nation of the UK is there such a spectrum of political views and cultures within the same party, from Livingstone on one hand to proud Blairites like Tessa Jowell on the other. The last decade involved a lot of pretending those ideological differences didn’t exist.

By 2012, that habit of staying quiet had turned into a blanket tolerance of anything Livingstone said or did. In that climate, he felt able to say things that even his previous supporters or those sympathetic to him – such as The Guardian’s Jonathan Freedland – just couldn’t stomach.

The Party chose Livingstone in 2010 by overwhelming vote but underwhelming debate. Reeling from General Election defeat, distracted by the leadership contest, the re-selection of Livingstone was seen as almost a piece of minor bureaucracy: “let’s get it out of the way and save a bit of cash by having it at the same time as the leadership vote.” That fact was crucial to his defeat: because there was no real spotlight, he never had to answer the questions during his selection – like the apparent contradiction between his statements on tax and reports of his own tax affairs – that got him into such trouble later on.

He also never really needed to come up with an answer to the first question for any party trying to come back from defeat in just one term: why should anyone vote for Livingstone this time if they didn’t last time?

Now there is space to have the debate and the best way of ensuring that a debate happens is by Labour’s leaders immediately setting a late selection date for the 2016 Mayoral Election. When would that be? Autumn 2014 will be in the run up to the General Election. The summer of 2015 will either be during Ed Miliband’s dramatic first hundred days as Prime Minister or in the middle of a painful inquest as to how Labour managed to lose against a Government it believed to be so incompetent.

If Labour choses its candidate for January 2016, all its potential candidates would be scrutinised and one would go into the mayoral contest straight from a high profile victory. The actual process could be made tougher too – either by involving London politicians in the electoral college, as happens for Leader of the Labour Party, or by throwing it open as a public primary like the one that selected Francois Hollande as a French presidential candidate – in which an astonishing 2 million voters chose to take part.

As someone who’s lived here for nine years but still answers “Yorkshire” when people ask where I’m from, I’m a resistant to “as London goes, so goes the nation” in political debate. But the interpretation of this defeat will be significant for the future of the whole Labour Party because London is so heavily represented in it. For example, in the last Labour leadership election, Scotland and London had roughly similar numbers of votes in the MPs/MEPs section – but while one in five of the party membership electorate lived in London, one in twenty lived in Scotland. Next time there is such a contest for leader or deputy leader, London may be even more pivotal: boundary changes are likely to have reduced the number of non-London Labour MPs and I’d wager that Ed Miliband’s membership drive will have been disproportionately successful in the capital.

Having a – probably quite heated – internal debate, culminating in a close fought selection will undoubtedly be difficult. No one starts with a complete diagnosis of what’s wrong or what should be done. The easiest thing would be for Labour members to put this defeat down to a candidate past his prime, with a discrete set of idiosyncratic weaknesses – a few miscommunications with London’s Jewish community, a few queries about his taxes. But the easiest thing was to let Livingstone have the second chance he wanted so much – and Boris Johnson was the one who gained from that decision.

This post was originally published here.

  • AlanGiles

    It is rather sad, Steve that you choose to take yet another bash at a now retired politician – in your own party, when you have some of the most odious current ministers in the coalition behaving like Duncan-Smith:-

    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/318425/Tory-sneers-at-disabled

    That is what you should be railing against, not yet another “Isn’t Ken a Naughty Boy” thread – there have been several already

    • treborc1

      That’s the Newer labour party for you

    • treborc1

       Mind you labour did the same of course with Peter Hain saying the same thing, it’s our Job to get the disabled into real jobs, the factories closed in 2005 three million quid were given to the council to help people find work, not a single disabled person has found work, how do I know because I spoke on a number of TV program and radio about the closures some with Peter Hain.

      Bercow was right this morning people see politics and politicians as being mostly the same

      • AlanGiles

        Well Robert, you know I never defend those ministers past or present who want to punish the sick and disabled. To me, frankly they are the lowest of the low (especially when most of them were or are expenses fiddlers), but in fairness to Hain, he kicked Freud into the long grass. It was Purnell and Brown who retrieved the ball.

        • treborc1

          Well yes but of Course Hain is a good solid politician knowing where his bread is buttered like some people on here, they are New labour, then Brown’s labour what ever that was, now Miliband’s again what ever that is , he flows with the tide.

          But he still wiped the floor with 200 disabled workers.

          http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/7012002.stm

          Four month later 2000 jobs had gone and every Remploy factory by me closed

  • http://twitter.com/dlandoncole David Landon Cole

    I’m not sure I agree. The new Labour candidate could use time to build profile and campaign across every part of London. Beyond that, we need someone who clearly speaks for Labour in London; a sort of leader of the opposition figure, who can clearly be seen as a mayor in waiting.

    • treborc1

       Tony Blair. he’s looking for a job, and you can make millions in that position as Boris will tell you,  no need to work all day, you can write a few books.

      • Alexwilliamz

        I would not be surpirsed if he himself ahs not thought of this. Do we really hate London this much?

  • Mario Dunn

    Agree that it is not necessary to rush into a selection. Boris Johnson did not decide to run again until a few months before the due date. No doubt Labour will try to find a well known figure a la Alan Sugar to stand. But this doesn’t need to be sorted until 2015

  • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

    Can’t really see any advantage in delaying the selection – unless there’s an expectation/hope of Ed losing in in 2015 (I note the knifes are already out for Ed over on Labouruncut* – charges of hypocrisy and cowardice – sound familiar?), if so the anti-Ed brigade may have an for opportunity for a purge of Ed-influenced decisions.

    However, there’s nothing to stop us from getting nominations underway, informally. I’ll nominate Eddie Izzard. He’s already expressed an interest**, has shown himself to be a capable operator and has gained much political credibility from his work*** with the anti-extremist organisation Hope not Hate.

    * http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2012/05/05/lions-were-led-by-donkeys-in-labour%E2%80%99s-london-mayoral-election/

    ** http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-15088430

    *** http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/blog/article/717/come-campaigning-with-eddie-izzard

    • aracataca

      Absolutely disgusted with the attack on Ed at Labour Uncut. How the hell is it EM’s fault that Livingstone was selected and (only just) lost? EM had virtually no hand in the selection process and clearly had to (and wanted to) endorse the official Labour candidate. It won’t be a surprise to anyone here to learn that I personally think EM has played a blinder over the last 2 years. Most importantly he kept his trap shut for most of 2011 and let the Tory/Fib Dem coalition hurt themselves.The results of his strategy were evident on Thursday. My own view is that we should remain policy lite for the next year or so and let them continue their joint suicide bid. IMHO it is important to remember that governments lose elections rather than oppositions win them. 

    • Brumanuensis

      Hatwal is so full of excrement. That is a risible and pathetic article, just another example of LabourUncut’s obssession with finding something, anything, to hit Ed Miliband over the head with.

      • AlanGiles

        Hutwal not only  sounds a prat he looks like one as well

        http://www.5cmpr.co.uk/who.htm

        I can only assume the gas mask the model is wearing on the home page of their little PR organisation is to warn that it stinks!

        • Brumanuensis

          I hadn’t seen that before. I didn’t realise Hodges and Hatwal actually worked together in a professional capacity.

          • Alexwilliamz

            ‘professional’ in the most tenuous use of the word I presume? I don’t know these guys but the stuff they are putting out is pretty poisonous. I’m really not sure what they are attempting to achieve.

      • Alexwilliamz

        These guys need to be cut off not un cut. I’m all for discussion and disagreement about policy and such like, but this stuff about strategy is unhelpful and distasteful at best. It was idiots like this in the tory party who kept them well away from pwoer for so long. I expect if these two were twenty years older they might have been in the other party, acting in an equally destabilising way.

        • AlanGiles

          What I find so interesting about their PR company website is that their “testiominals” date from 2003 and 2004. It seems the last six years haven’t been so successful.

  • Mario Dunn

    The danger with picking a comedian  for a candidate is the public will take him for a comedian. Wasn’t that always the charge Livingstone levelled at Boris Johnson? (and Blair at Hague)?

  • http://www.stuartbruce.biz/ Stuart Bruce

    Mario is right, Boris was selected late and Labour can and should do the same. I’d also back the idea of an open primary. Society is changing, and will have changed even more by 2015-16. The old tribal way of doing things is going to continue to diminish and we need new ways of making politics relevant to people.

  • Ian Loveland

    I would agree with the suggestion of Eddie Izzard, but if thats the case we need an early selection, not a late one – he (or any other politician who isn’t well known, or isn’t well known as a politician) needs time to establish himself with the electorate, gain credibility and get his message across. I’m not sure the “Ken lost last time, why would the electorate have voted for him” argument makes much sense – wasn’t his major opponent in the selection Oona King, who also lost her seat? And if you look at vote share, Ken outperformed the party.

  • Labour member, London

    I’m afraid it’s a superficial analysis of the issues and a superficial solution proposed. A late selection merely risks cutting the time for debate and genuine participation by members. The idea that you open it up to a primary of ‘supporters’ or, even worse, give London ‘politicians’ a vote in an electoral college shows just how bereft of policy ideas the party has become. And it’s not just the right that lacks ideas and looks for bureaucratic fixes to solve a political and economic crisis. At the moment the left is almost silent too.

    The local election results (and the French revival of the socialists) show that the public are losing faith in the idea of dismantling welfare state under the guise of ‘austerity’. But we, as a party, seem very far from providing genuine policy alternatives. What do we do about the debt and how do we restructure our economy and society, globally as well as nationally, to resolve the debt crisis to the benefit of the vast majority of citizens? -That is the big question, about which there is almost total silence. (Read Benjamin Kunkel’s ‘Forgive us our debts’ in the latest London Review of Books, for a very intelligent treatment of this question). In my view that has to be our task over the next three years. Empty technical fixes and manipulation of the sort proposed here get us nowhere.

    • Alexwilliamz

      Debt restructuring has to be a long term project, it grew up over a long period and is going to take a while to deal with, it is definitely not the time to try and sort it out during a time of recession and skrinking tax revenues. There needs to be real debate about what the state should pay for and what taxes are needed rather than the offer the earth and cut taxes at the same time. The case of a mixed economy of public and private concerns, has to be made, with a rejuvenation of the public service spirit.

      Innovation is great as is entreprenuership but these can not be used as trojan horses to slip advantage and tax breaks to vested interest and big corporations. The governments needs to get serious about supporting an environment for genuine small and medium sized businesses plus the turning of science and engineering innovation in business successes, rather than seeing  the capital and profit from our inventions disappear overseas. All governments seem to have the rhetoric for it but it seems to be their policies are piecemeal or actually benefit the financial institutes and corporations over the smaller concerns.

      Alongside this has to be a change in how we view different jobs as an insiduous class distinction drives people away from doing the kinds of jobs that are necessary and often appropriate to an individuals skills. The recognition of the value of everyone’s contribution with a drive towards a greater equality between the bottom and the top has to underpin a new vision for britain.

      • Peter Barnard

        Eloquent comment, Alex Williamz (“Debt restructuring …”).

        Clem Attlee would be proud of you ….

      • Labour member, London

        ‘Debt restructuring has to be a long term project, it grew up over a long period and is going to take a while to deal with, it is definitely not the time to try and sort it out during a time of recession and skrinking tax revenues.’

        Alex, it is a reassuring idea that addressing the problem of debt can somehow be postponed. But it won’t do, because the issue of who owes what to whom, and why, lies at the heart of our economics and therefore at the heart of our politics. It lies underneath the idea of  ‘austerity’ and ‘shrinking tax revenues’. It limits the room for manouevre of the debtor democracies to cutting faster (Tories) or a bit slower (Labour), or cutting more (Tories) or a bit less (Labour). So we have to examine this, whether we would like to or not.

        Kunkel’s article http://www.lrb.co.uk/v34/n09/benjamin-kunkel/forgive-us-our-debts which reviews two recent books on debt, spells out the issues eloquently and I would recommend anyone to read it. It explains how, and to some extent why, the economy is so skewed away from manufacturing towards finance

        ‘In the 1960s the US financial sector harvested about 15 per cent of domestic profits, while manufacturers took half of the total; by 2005, finance enjoyed nearly 40 per cent of profits, and manufacturing less than 15 per cent.’

        There are similar figures to be found elsewhere, for the global trend away from income in the form of wages towards income in the form of profit over the past 50 years. Take these together and we can begin to imagine why we are all working a lot harder for a lot less in the West (and why the same process is beginning to happen in China, leading to great industrial unrest today).

        We have to try to see the big picture. If we don’t we are simply struggling to allocate the devastating cuts… a bit better or a bit worse than another party.

        • Alexwilliamz

          Thanks for the comment Labour member, I am not advocating ignoring the problem, but recognising that it is a long term problem that cannot be solved through a couple of terms of austerity. My point is that the solution is about rejuvenating our economy, and trying to perform some fast fix austerity measure in a time of recession is counter productive. Part of the problem is the state has very few productive assets to fall back on in times of reduced tax burden, something which especially with regard to strategic industries is dangerous, if we are as many believe heading into a time of resource scarcity. Rather than some crude austerity measures slashing spending through arbitrary percentage cuts to dept budgets, we need to look at things in a more rational way, work out how to ensure that the money we spend has the most impact and more importantly does not create long term damage which will cost us more in the long run.

          The classic example is how the ‘austerity cuts’ have in the first instance slashed capital expenditure while doing very little to everyday costs. This is very short term and may lead to more capital expenditure in the long run, in the short term it may lead to less efficient services, in the medium term it may create expensive maintenance costs and/or rent/heating costs. Cutting capital expenditure may in effect be no different to borrowing money when the full costings are added up (ie passing on the costs to future expenditure).

          Another example may be the long term damage to a generation of school leavers, who have been unable to make the step onto the employment ladder. This may lead to long term health and mental health issues, social problems and create a group of people who are simply left behind.

          • Labour member, London

            Alex
            I don’t think we are far apart in terms of what we desire – the kind of society we would wish to live in. And I agree that the austerity cuts are damaging for all sorts of reasons, and may not work even in their own terms. But I think we need to look at the fundamentals. For example – and I have often wondered this – why is quantitative easing not simply done as putting a few thousand pounds into every citizen’s pocket? It would be far more likely to stimulate the economy than the present arrangement. Kunkel’s excellent article in the LRB goes some way to explaining why this is not done. Forgive me for quoting him at length, but I have rarely seen the case made so clearly:

            ‘The response of Western officials to the economic crisis, with its proximate cause in unsustainable consumer debt, has been to ensure that banks suffer as few losses as possible, while relying on the same indebted consumers – in their role as taxpayers – to keep the bankers whole. The Fed and now the ECB have loaned banks money at virtually no cost, encouraging those same banks to purchase government bonds paying much higher rates of interest: a direct subsidy of finance by the public, while millions sink into unemployment and bankruptcy. A far simpler and more effective monetary policy would have been for the government to print a new batch of money, distribute an equal amount to everyone, then sit back and watch as stagnant economies were stirred to life by the spending and debts were paid down and eroded by temporarily higher inflation. The inconceivability of such a policy is a mark not of any impracticability, but of the capture of governments by a financial oligarchy.’

            My point is that until we face up to the big issue – money, value, debt and the arrangements that maintain this – the state (as you rightly say) has little or no room for manouevre – ‘very few productive assets’.

            The present system is not a given. Capital is not a force of nature. It is all the product of human thought, economic policy, power structures, and legal frameworks.

            Class has long been thought to be an anachronistic old-fashioned way of looking at things. While capitalism delivered so well, during the long years of the almost unprecedented boom (and we now know bubble), this was understandable – why rock the boat when things are going so apparently smoothly?  But now things are not going smoothly at all and there is a viscious struggle going on to determine who pays the price. Looking at the different interests at play (as Kunkel puts it, the 1% who lend and the 99% who borrow), has become, to my mind, inescapable if we wish to understand where we are, and how we can find a way forward.

      • treborc1

         Blooming heck socialism.

        • Alexwilliamz

          Is it. Just seems like common sense to me.

  • Brumanuensis

    Another article advocating primaries. Lord, give me strength…

  • Alexwilliamz

    The main case for an early selection is to create a genuine opposition to Boris, which would hopefully keep Johnson in check, and also allow our candidate to act as a lightenining conductor for those who will become increasingly dissillusioned with his governance..

  • MonkeyBot5000

    …either by involving London politicians in the electoral college, as
    happens for Leader of the Labour Party, or by throwing it open as a
    public primary…

    A public primary makes a lot of sense given that the people who vote in that primary are the same people whose votes you’ll be asking for in the election.

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