A few words about words

September 6, 2012 9:30 am

Talk is cheap – especially in the blogosphere. But this doesn’t mean that words don’t matter. Sometimes words are all we’ve got to get through to people. This is something any leader of the opposition knows only too well. Tony Blair used to contrast waking up as prime minister and thinking “What shall I do today?” with his waking thought in opposition: “What shall I say today?”

In politics we have another new word to wrestle with: “predistribution”. This concept is being offered as a possible way forward for left-of-centre parties. Rather than getting bogged down in traditional debates about redistributing wealth after it has been created, predistribution involves (I think!) intervening earlier in labour markets to “make work pay”. Markets, in other words, are not allowed to fail. Active government intervenes first to make them work better.

I’m sure there’s a lot more to predistribution than that, and as an idea it will reward further study. Clearly, I am going to have to study it more carefully to understand it better. But that’s really the point of this post. We need to be careful with grand-sounding political concepts that are hard to explain in simple terms.

Ed Miliband’s important party conference speech last year came in for some criticism, not least for his characterisation of businesses as “predators” and “producers”. The media’s response was a case-study in dumbing down: never mind the argument, let’s make fun of the language. In fact Miliband was ahead of the game in his analysis of aspects of contemporary business, a fact recognised at the time by Vince Cable, who privately congratulated the Labour leader on the speech. What was portrayed as outlandish turned out to be prescient. But the lesson was “be careful what you say and how you say it”.

“Predistribution” does not really pass the Ronseal test – the word on the tin does not tell you what it does. It is not an easy political concept to explain. What chance does it have of being taken seriously by the media or being reported calmly and in good faith?

A clever chap once told me: “Communication is a result, not an intention”. What he meant, I think, is that it is what people understand that matters or, as they say in the US: “It’s not what you say, it’s what they hear”. Without cheapening or distorting political ideas, the trick lies in conveying sometimes complicated or difficult concepts simply.

Facing a glib and incompetent government, Labour scores with its greater seriousness and attention to detail. Prime minister’s questions is becoming an ever more enjoyable session for Labour supporters. Ed Miliband’s challenges are sharp and precise, and the prime minister has few answers to them. People are beginning to pay more attention to the opposition and, perhaps surprisingly so soon after a big electoral defeat, are starting to look on it as a possible government-in-waiting.

As Labour prepares to make a more substantial appeal to the electorate, setting out its policy ideas, it must not lose the attention it has done well to win. It must speak directly and simply to busy people who have a limited appetite for abstractions and intricate political concepts.

In his ground-breaking work “Lyrical Ballads”, Wordsworth talked about writing in what he called “the real language of men”. It was a radical idea back in 1798. It is still a good idea today.

Predistribution is a concept that was originally developed by a political scientist called Jacob Hacker. It has to be explained clearly and handled with care. The danger is that people who deploy it could end up sounding more like Jim Hacker than Jacob.

  • Hugh

    “I’m sure there’s a lot more to predistribution than that,”

    Funny, since it’s an Ed Miliband concept I’m reasonably sure there’s not.

    • PeterBarnard

      Actually, pre-distribution is not an EM concept – if you read the bottom paragraph, it refers the reader to the originator, a man called Jacob Hacker.

      The concept makes a lot of sense. People in work should receive a sufficient wage in the first place to, at least, pay for the essentials of life, eg roof over the family’s head, council tax, food, utility bills, clothing, plus a bit more for the “little luxuries.”

      Having to go to government to apply for means-tested social security payments to top up earnings is an assault against human dignity. Still, the UK always has had a low-wage mentality (except for the period after the Second World War up to 1979, when “ordinary” wages actually kept pace with the growth in output so that “ordinary” people could share in the general increase in material prosperity).

      Thatcher, Joseph and Tebbit (to name just three) put a stop, bigtime, to that concept. The irony is that the Conservatives did more to establish so-called “welfare dependency” between 1979 and 1997, than any government before or since. So much for “rolling back the frontiers of the state.”

      • Hugh

        And I’m sure in Jacob’s hands there was more to it. In Ed’s hands, if I am not mistaken it will mean very little in practice.

        Perhaps Miliband does have the vision, burning desire and ideas to  overturn three decades of consensus (and has just been keeping very  quiet about it); it seems unlikely.

        As it is, the UK seems to be sixth in the table of average disposable wages of OECD countries, 8th for gross wages.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage#Average_disposable_wage_of_OECD_members

        On Median equivalized income, according to the OECD, we also appear to be eighth, well ahead of Germany, France, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark and so on. And for real average annual growth in real median household income between the mid 80s and late 2000s we appear to be middle of the road, a little above the OECD average – and above not terribly Thatcherite France and Germany.

        http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/soc_glance-2011-en/04/01/g4_ge1-01.html?contentType=&itemId=/content/chapter/soc_glance-2011-6-en&containerItemId=/content/serial/19991290&accessItemIds=/content/book/soc_glance-2011-en&mimeType=text/html

        I do agree that “having to go to government to apply for means-tested social security
        payments to top up earnings is an assault against human dignity” – for those in a full time job, anyway. I’m pretty unconvinced any MP is going to come up with a good answer for lower paid work; I’m certain Ed won’t. In the meantime, however, one idea might be to reduce both benefits but also taxes (since I can see our politicians just about managing that). The Lib Dem’s idea to raise the tax threshold seems a good place to start.

        Does anyone know if Ed supports this (including Ed himself)?

        • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

          “Perhaps Miliband does have the vision, burning desire and ideas to  overturn three decades of consensus”

          For better or worse, Hugh,  the three decades of consensus managed the overturn manoeuvre all by itself.

          Ed is working towards a coherent response that will benefit the many – a far better approach than Cameron’s – who seems to want to drive the whole shebang over a cliff in a desperate attempt to preserve privilege for the few.

          • Hugh

             ”For better or worse, Hugh,  the three decades of consensus managed the overturn manoeuvre all by itself.”

            Yes, so you’ve said before. Unfortunately, you’ve never been able to point me to empirical evidence of the widespread rejection of our economic system – much less embracing something well to the left. Peoples Revolution polling figures currently give the coalition parties plus UKIP 51% of the vote.

            Ed will still be working towards a coherent response come 2015.

          • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

            “never been able to point me to empirical evidence of the widespread rejection of our economic system  ”

            Perhaps you should get out more.

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8Ayb8P1LbU 

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rshdJZruH_0

            Outline context:
            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner-Take-All_Politics_(book)

          • Hugh

            Could it be that Greece isn’t a great proxy for voting intentions in the UK?

        • PeterBarnard

          Hugh,

          A median income is just that – a median income ; it tells you nothing about the distribution of income within the whole.
           
          If you look a bit further (OECD), the UK median income grew by 2.1% pa between the mid-1980s and late 2000s, and GDP per capita grew by 2.7% pa. Someone captured that difference of 0.6% pa – and it wasn’t the blokes who come round to collect my wheely-bins every week, nor the charming shopfloor people in Tesco and J Sainsbury.

          I’m not sure that the consensus that you mention is a consensus of the whole workforce – it’s more a “consensus,” I would suggest, of the “gainers” since 1979. Having said that, Messrs Blair and Brown and many other New Labourites did very little to disturb the “consensus” (they didn’t want to frighten the horses).

          And, of course, economic mainstream thought is subject to change and who knows? A new “consensus” is always a possibility ; as J K Galbraith remarked, “Nothing lasts forever.”

          • Hugh

            To be fair a median income does tell you a bit about the distribution – it’s not the mean. And as a reflection of “ordinary” wages is there anything better?

          • PeterBarnard

            Hugh,

            All a median is that value at which half the population are below, and half above. It tells you nothing about the actual distribution of values in the population.

            For that, you would have to look at (say) the 10th percentile, the 20th percentile and so on up to the 90th percentile, and then compare the values at those percentiles with the median.

          • Hugh

             So, what measure would you use? And what international comparisons show that we have done worse than similar Europeean countries such as France and Germany as a result of Thatcher?

          • rekrab

            A pretty comprehensive link  @Hugh. 
            http://www.tuc.org.uk/extras/unfairtomiddling.pdf

          • PeterBarnard

            Good reference, Derek. The graph on page 11 says it all.

          • Hugh

             Not to be argumentative (well, a little) but I’m not sure it does – or at least doesn’t really explain why the employed cannot live without state hand outs.

            Certainly it shows the top 10% doing very much better than anyone else. However, it shows the median – surely not a bad measure of “ordinary wages” growing by about 60 per cent since the end of the 1970s; even the bottom 10% saw theirs grow 25%ish – all in real terms.

            So, we’re all by that measure much better off than we were at the end of 20 years when “ordinary” wages kept pace with the growth in output. So why the necessity for means-tested social security
            payments to top up earnings?

          • PeterBarnard

            Hugh,

            We have all been getting “better off” since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.

            GDP per capita increased at 2.3% per annum between 1978 and 2008 ; the bottom decile saw their wages increase by 0.7% per annum (and median wages by 1.6% per annum)..

            Now, if output increases at 2.3% per annum, and if the bottom half see an increase of 1.6% per annum at best, how the heck are they going to be able to purchase what has been produced?

            Surprise, surprise – they can’t. Hence the increase in consumer debt that the right wing spends the other half of its life bitching about.

          • rekrab

            Spot on @Peter.

          • Hugh

            The left wing spends half its life bitching about consumerism, but it turns out you’re not talking about people being able to afford to live (since that’s accounted for with real-terms rises) without state hands outs, but rather whether they can get the toys enjoyed by the rich. And then, oddly, you want to look at it pre-tax, so the question’s not even answered.

          • PeterBarnard

            A quick and dirty indicator of income distribution is the Gini coefficient..

            If you look at http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=26068 you will see that, compared to the mid-70s, the Gini coefficient (pre-tax incomes) has moved much more in the UK and the US than it has in Sweden, Denmark and Norway (Germany and France do not have values for the mid-1970s).

          • Hugh

            Pre-tax incomes seems a very odd measure to use in this discussion.

          • PeterBarnard

            Not at all (pre-tax incomes is odd).
             
            The alternate measure includes the effect of tax and transfers and it is those transfers that the right wing spends half its life bitching about.

  • Daniel Speight

    What we really have is a word that is not meant to say anything that would scare the Daily Mail readers. It is purposely vague.

    It is becoming obvious to many that widening income gap will not be viable for much longer. Something has to be done and it looks like Ed Miliband will try to do it without saying openly that’s what he is going to do.

    If we look back at how quiet Osborne went about austerity between the party conference when he spelled it out clear enough and the election in 2010, we can see that politicians would sometimes like to keep ideas close to their chest. It’s a shame in many ways because it would be better to be honest with the public.

  • LembitOpiksLovechild

    The best form of ‘pre-distribution’ (horrible word) is to stop taking some much bloody tax in the first place. Do that and we would not then have the ridiculous,  time consuming,and ultimately wasteful system of working and family tax credits created by the last government. 

  • http://www.futureeconomics.org Diarmid Weir

    ‘Predistribution’ should mean ensuring that all get their fair share from market processes before tax and benefit redistribution.

    The only effective way to do that is to share control of the economy more fairly.

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