This is a crisis for most – but it’s still boom time for those at the top

September 7, 2012 4:03 pm

We’re almost at the mid-point of a national tragedy: a Tory Government during an economic crisis. On its own terms, austerity has proven a disaster, and if there was any justice, Number 10’s current occupants would be staring into the political abyss. Borrowing is surging as the economy shrinks and tax receipts go into free-fall; we’ve had three quarters of negative growth; the Great Depression has been eclipsed as the most protracted economic crisis on record; and the OECD projects the worst economic performance of any G7 country.

And yet though the Government is increasingly unpopular – as 80,000 people reminded George Osborne at the Paralympics – there remains no serious sign of a U-turn from their catastrophic economic programme. Above all, that is down to the lack of a coherent alternative: no matter how bad things get, the Tories mock the absence of any other realistic approach. ‘Deficit-denier’ has lost its sting, but the Tories’ confidence stems from an intellectual vacuum within the opposition.

That’s why the new think-tank Class is so important. Unlike other left-wing think-tanks, it is rooted in the labour movement, receiving the backing of trade unions such as Unite, the GMB and PCS. There has been no lack of alternative ideas to Austerity Britain, but they are fragmented and yet to be stitched together as a coherent narrative. Class hopes to challenge that by bringing together economists, academics and other experts to flesh out what an alternative would actually mean.

To kick the process off, Class has launched a new pamphlet drawing on the work of Professors Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, authors of the seminal The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better. ‘Why Inequality Matters’ explodes the ‘We’re All In This Together’ mantra – as offensive as it is ludicrous – by demonstrating how it is crisis for most, but still boom-time for the top. Consider the fact that, last year, boardroom pay soared by 49% even as the average private sector worker received a below-inflation pay rise (and thus real-terms pay cut) of 2.7%.

Or the fact that, in 2010 – as economic crisis was becoming tangible for working people – the Sunday Times Rich List reported that the wealthiest 1,000 people in Britain enjoyed a surge in their personal fortunes of £395 billion – or 30%, the biggest rise ever recorded.

It’s easy, though, to put this process all down to the recession. Yet in his speech yesterday, Ed Miliband conceded that there has been a three decade long economic consensus founded by Thatcher, which New Labour – despite tweaks – was part of. During this neo-liberal era, the share of Britain’s wealth ending up in workers’ pay packets plummeted. While in the mid-1970s, around two-thirds of the economy went to wages, today it is little over half. As the pamphlet reveals, if the share had increased at the same rate as the nation’s incomes, middle incomes would be £3,000 higher.

Indeed, today’s crisis of living standards predates the collapse of Lehman Brothers. From 2004 onwards, the real income of the bottom half stagnated; for the bottom third, they actually declined.

What is so compelling about Pickett and Wilkinson’s critique of inequality is that is not airy-fairy moralising: that is, a simple complaint about the unfairness of how the country’s wealth is distributed. The point is we all suffer, because inequality brings a whole host of problems with it. Britain has the worst record for children’s welfare of any developed country; we similarly fare badly when it comes to a whole host of issues ranging from mental illness and life expectancy, to infant mortality and obesity.

To his credit, Ed Miliband supported The Spirit Level’s approach during his leadership campaign, and made reducing inequality a priority. Unfortunately, policies that would make this reality have yet to be offered. In his Policy Network speech yesterday, he offered ‘predistribution’ as a new approach. It is a somewhat wonky term that originates in an article written by TV-historian-turned-Labour-MP Tristrman Hunt in The Purple Book, a pamphlet published by Blairite faction Progress.

Predistribution is attractive as a concept. It effectively argues that inequality is expensive, because the Government has to spend huge amounts of money dealing with its consequences. For example, tax credits may be a lifeline for millions, but they are effectively a subsidy for low pay because businesses do not pay their workers properly. If the causes of inequality were dealt with first, one benefit would be saving billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money.

However, the main policy suggestion was a supply-side approach: skilling up workers. This misses the point – that middle-income skilled jobs were destroyed from the 1980s onwards and were not replaced, leaving a so-called ‘hourglass economy’ with well-paid professional jobs at the top, and low-paid, insecure, low-prestige service sector jobs at the bottom. There is already a growing problem with underemployed, overqualified workers: by the end of 2011, more than a third of recent graduates were in non-graduate jobs, compared to around a quarter a decade earlier.

To really tackle inequality, radical policies are needed. Firstly, a living wage: Unite leader Len McCluskey has suggested raising the minimum wage by £1 to £7.19, for example. Not only would this reduce the welfare bill, it would act as a economic stimulus, helping growth and job creation: when the poorly-paid receive a boost to their incomes, they rend to spend it, whilst the wealthier tend to save it.

Secondly, trade union rights. One of the reasons workers’ wages have stagnated is because of the inability of organised labour to fight their corner. In the US – where the collapse of union power has been precipitous – this process is even more striking: median male wages are no higher than they were in 1973.

Thirdly, Ed Miliband has spoken about rip-off rail prices. But rather than simply regulating our privately owned, fragmented railway system, we should be calling for a publicly owned, democratically run, affordable service – a model we could apply to utilities such as gas and water. Taxpayers’ subsidies of the railways have increased by around four times since privatisation, even as above-inflation rail fare increases are imposed.

Fourthly, we should be calling for a far more progressive tax system. Shortly after reducing the taxes of Britain’s richest 1%, George Osborne expressed his supposed shock that some of the wealthiest people paid no taxes at all. As well as clamping down on the £25 billion lost through tax avoidance, we should be looking at making sure the booming rich pay more. A YouGov poll for Class showed that the majority of Britons – including more than 4 out of 10 Tory voters – would support a 75% tax rate on those earning £1 million or more, a policy suggested by new French President François Hollande.

With the interminable economic crisis hitting working people even as the wealthiest thrive, the case for equality should be stronger than ever. Over the coming months, Class will be proposing practical policies to make this happen. But ‘Why Inequality Matters’ will help arm Labour activists and trade unionists with arguments – not least to use to pressure the Labour leadership to support popular, bold policies that would transform Britain.

  • http://twitter.com/TDMAS0N Tom Mason

    This is a compelling argument in favour of pre-distribution as an instrument for tackling long-term growth of income inequality. Really good article Owen (as always).

    Just one thing I would like to raise: the claims of Wilkinson & Pickett that RELATIVE income inequality harms health is based on a statistical artefact known as aggregation bias. It essentially boils down to this point …health increases more with additional income at lower levels than at higher levels [an increase in the income of a poor individual improves their health by more than for the same amount for a high income individual].

    The spurious or artefactual correlation at population level between
    population mortality and income dispersion will always occur if the
    effect of individual income on the individual risk of mortality is
    smaller at higher incomes than at lower incomes. This will be so even if
    there is no underlying relation between the distribution of income and
    the risk of mortality at the level of the individual.

    I know this is a long and slightly arcane point .. but we should base our arguments in favor of social justice on the basis of a solid evidence base. The other arguments may be credible but the argument that relative income inequality harms health is based on a misunderstanding of mathematics.

    If we are going to base our arguments in favour of social justice and a more equal society on scientific works – we should ensure that they genuinely are scientifically sound.

    The article is excellent and there are plenty of other compelling arguments and my point is only in relation to the Wilkinson & Pickett book which, as far as I am concerned, has been discredited in the academic community. We should move away from some of the claims made by Wilkinson and Pickett as they are not scientifically robust.

    • http://www.futureeconomics.org Diarmid Weir

      ‘…the Wilkinson & Pickett book which, as far as I am concerned, has been discredited in the academic community.’
      I think to go this far is to allow yourself to be persuaded by some with an anti-equality agenda. By omitting the issue you point out, the book itself presents the case in a rather simplistic way, but the central thesis may still be correct in many elements.

      In fact it rather defies logic that at some point economic inequality does not become seriously socially corrosive. The important questions are: Are we at that point yet? And even if not, how do we make sure we don’t reach it?

      I’ve written more on this at http://www.futureeconomics.org/2012/07/beyond-the-spirit-level

    • jennifer

       On inequality harming health, an essential read is Michael Marmot’s The Status Syndrome.  It’s a while since I read it, but i.i.r.c. the effects persist even when controlling for access to money.

  • PeterBarnard

    Basically a good rallying article, Owen, but be careful with the “in the mid-70s, nearly two-thirds of national output went to wage-earners” because if you look at the actual record (used to be ONS Time Series IHXP ; heaven alone knows where it is following the website reorganisation a couple of years ago), compensation of employees was indeed 65.1% of GDP in 1975.

    Why this was, I’m not sure – that was a period of very high inflation, and labour may have captured the inflationary increases, rather than capital.

    However, it was a quirk ; between 1955 and 1973, employee compensation was 59% of GDP on average, and it was back to 58.8% in 1979. In other words, be careful about using data that appears to be not typical, because your credibility may then be placed at risk.

  • SR819

    I agree that we should put in place a 75% tax rate on those earning £1M+, but we can’t be selective about listening to the public. For example, a vast majority of people in the UK want immigration significantly reduced (http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/News/IpsosMORI_ImmigrationFeb2011.pdf) but would the Labour party agree to such a policy?

  • http://twitter.com/chairmakerPete Peter Hearn

    In simple terms the problem is the loss of skilled jobs to the emerging nations, and the impact of automation.

    Those who run firms, (and I confess I am one), can easily switch production to China, Vietnam, Poland etc., where wages are lower and suppliers are [still] eager.  Nobody’s even begun meaningfully to tap the African labour supply yet, so wait until that hits.  Despite the rise in their living standards, there’s no early end in sight for the labour supply from those regions for lower and mid-quality goods.

    For those jobs that can’t be moved, wage pressure has meant that automation is increasingly attractive.  Computerised machines  have replaced many workers and improved quality and delivery at the same time.  What’s not to like about that if you’re a company trying to sell your wares, or a consumer who wants ever lower prices?

    It’s therefore no surprise that the proportion of GDP spent on wages is falling.  Actually, you’d expect that as a nation advances and low value tasks are shipped out to others.  Citing that as proof of anything other than the inevitable is moot.

    The trades unions can make the living wage what they like: it’ll just mean those jobs go offshore.  Not easy to take, but the reality of the situation.  The question is how we can become competitive again as a nation, and those who rely on others to give them jobs are in an unenviable position as they wait for answers.

    • SR819

       Well then we should simply legislate tax breaks to companies that don’t offshore their production or certain services (like IT). Perhaps we should also put in place legislation that puts a limit on the percentage of a firm that is owned by foreign investors; just because international capital is mobile doesn’t mean we can’t challenge that. Sure, we might lose some “efficiency” but we’ve had policy run on the basis of economic efficiency for ages, and how has that benefited the working class?

    • PeterBarnard

      If your analysis – and forecast – is correct, Mr Hearn, then eventually 3/4 (or more) of the nation will be in an “unenviable position.” For sure, it won’t be any use in switching production overseas because there won’t be much purchasing power around to buy the imports.

      Our national income falls into three streams : rent (from land ownership), profits (from capital employed) and wages/salaries (from employed labour). Perhaps, unacceptable as it may sound, the share currently enjoyed by the ownership of property may have to take an adjustment?

      Just a thought. It’s not impossible – net non-farm profits fell from 22% of GDP in 1856 to 9.4% in 1973 and total property income from 42% of GDP to 27% in the same period.

      • jaime taurosangastre candelas

        Peter,

        you forget government handouts in the form of benefits.  That’s a whole new form of “income” in its’ own right, and one that is becoming significant by itself.

        Of course, while your historic figures are interesting, I do not suppose you would find it politically convenient to calculate the rise from 0% of every single little government handout, housing credit, working family tax credit, bribe, discount, cost of nursery place, to factor in the subsidy in the real cost of education from 5 to 22, course of coloured water homeopathy treatment…..

        • PeterBarnard

          Oh dear, Jaime, “government handouts” are not income in the national accounts. As I have explained before, they are transfer payments.

          You will not find one economist anywhere in the world who regards “government handouts” as a stream of income in the national accounts.

          You also forgot something : the ”government handout” in the form of tax relief on your pensions contributions.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Peter,

            my wife’s monthly pay from her privately owned partnership – does that appear in the national accounts (ie wages / salaries section of your three classes)?  If it does, then I see no reason not to regard various benefits paid as also part of national income.  If it does not, then your whole model must also discount wages and salaries paid in the private sector.

            As far as government pensions are concerned, although 6% of my pay nominally goes into one deducted at source, I claim no tax relief for one, and I don’t expect to receive either a professional pension or a state old age pension, because the Government is over-spending on a Ponzi scheme, and as Liam Byrne said, “there’s no money left”.  Technically I suppose I may receive a pension if there is something left over and I won’t refuse it, but I don’t rely upon ever receiving it in my forward planning.

            After all, do you trust the government of any flavour to be a wise investor on your behalf? I certainly do not.

          • PeterBarnard

            You may not see a reason, Jaime, but your ignorance of how the national accounts are constructed does not constitute validity for your point of view.

            Back to basics :

            Output = income = expenditure

            Income is paid as a result of an output (a good or service being produced)  in one of three ways – wages, profits or rent*. When a transfer payment is made from A to B, there is no output from B. It’s exactly the same – in principle – as a gift or grant from A to B and the purchasing power of the gift or grant is transferred from A to B. It was A generating the output in the first place that is measured in the national accounts as income.

            Your remarks about pensions/”Ponzi scheme” are pure Daily Mail garbage, I’m sorry to say.

            * Because there are three factors of production : land, labour and capital. Rent = income from land ownership ; wages = income from labour ; profits = income from ownership of capital.

    • rekrab

      But you don’t really care for Britain do ya, as long as there’s people to exploit you’ll continue to bank roll your own worth.

    • Kernow Castellan

      Indeed. The transfer of jobs and services has been the most effective engine to redistribute wealth from the rich (us in the west) to the truly poor, correcting wealth concentrations that occurred in the 18th and 19th centuries.
      Obviously, it is entirely human to only want wealth redistributed down to your own level and no further.

  • http://www.futureeconomics.org Diarmid Weir

    ‘It’s therefore no surprise that the proportion of GDP spent on wages is falling.  Actually, you’d expect that as a nation advances and low value tasks are shipped out to others.’
    That’s surely rubbish! The ‘low value’ (actually low wage – which isn’t necessarily the same thing) tasks may go overseas, but what about the ‘high value’ tasks earning high wages and salaries?

    If the proportion of income GDP going to labour decreases, then more goes to the government and/or to capital owners. It’s not clear to me that has anything to do with a nation ‘advancing’; it’s simply a shift in economic power.

  • franwhi

     I thought the spirit level was a really compelling and valuable book highlighting persistent inequality in Britain (and USA) However, I think its intended audience are already on side. This week in Scotland the national media have been running a week long docu programme on the impact of child poverty. Working in education I see it some time – like the 14 year old boy who can hardly read and has esteem issues at school as a result of poor and erratic attendance over the years. Already at a young age you can see the guardedness and world weary look of a young man who’s socially excluded and psychologically crushed. We need the media to champion the poverty issue particularly by featuring young people as they deserve to have their story heard and even the most hard hearted of the public cannot blame children for the perceived sins of their parents. Personal testimony of youngster’s own words are powerful tools and even in our cynical country empowering young people to talk about their social circumstances doesn’t just make good telly – it gives the young person voice and agency. Children of the poor seldom have agency over their lives but harnessing this power is the key to breaking intergenerational poverty.      

  • http://twitter.com/shibleylondon Dr Shibley Rahman

    I’ve written about it at length on my LegalAware blog, admittedly for a bunch of followers who are socialists like me,

    http://legal-aware.org/2012/09/why-pre-distribution-matters-to-both-me-and-ed/

    And yes, the  @TristramHuntMP:disqus   chapter is excellent in my view in explaining some of the background to this.

    In summary, I think it’s an extremely relevant concept, but the sooner Ed doesn’t refer to it as ‘pre-distribution’, the better quite frankly.

  • http://twitter.com/shibleylondon Dr Shibley Rahman

    Excellent article and discussion thread.

  • http://twitter.com/shibleylondon Dr Shibley Rahman

    The term does not originate in that Hunt Purple Book pamphlet, by the way. As stated clearly in that pamphlet, Prof Jacob S Hacker from Yale coined in the term, although I note in my blogpost that Prof James Heckman has extensively studied the idea (he won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2000).

  • JoeDM

    This article seems to be a manifesto for return to the good old days of 1980s old Labour.   Cameron would be pleased !!!

  • TomFairfax

     I’m not sure it’s as simple as you think concerning the export of skilled jobs. For instance, whilst RBS exported a major portion of their IT jobs to India, it hasn’t proved particularly successful for the customers. This is there harmful to their long term viability.
    On the other hand in my design team there is one UK born person, a Brazilian and a Pole. On the bright side the test guys are locals but whose antecedents are from the Indian sub continent and therefore from families still imbued with more ambition, but the key issue is that the UK doesn’t provide enough adequately qualified people in technical areas to take on the jobs needing to be done and that are available.
    So whilst it’s a shame that many expensively educated grads are unemployed or taking lower level jobs, I suspect they are not grads in the technical or hard science subjects needed for an economy hoping to thrive on innovation and creativity in new technologies that our politicians keep on about.

    • leslie48

      A very good point and that’s why Gordon  Brown  in his final years provide 
       extra  university funding and places for these so called STEM ( Science, Technology  Engineering & Maths)  subjects. Of course that’s all forgotten now. However only yesterday on Radio 4 none other than Dyson was bemoaning the fact that the UK has a serious  shortage of engineering graduates & that companies like his can’t get enough of them. We need to encourage brighter working class English kids to get into the subject and not solely rely on the aspirational Iranian, Chinese and Asian origin high achievers. 

  • i_bid

    I liked the predistribution argument, but didn’t realise the prescription to remedy it was “skilling up” – which seems wholly inadequate, abdicating of responsibility, and – as you point out – not even likely to work. If that is the approach Miliband chooses than I’d despair.

    The rest of your article is bang on, and I hope to see more from Class in future.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/KVGWRSNIFQHIKNMNKUKCL74ZGI prziloczek

    Oh dear.
    Bring back Mr Wilson.
    Then bring back Tony and the iron chancellor.

  • postageincluded

    I can understand you having your picture by-line on the exellent piece that you’ve written, Owen. I dont undertand why your picture is also used to illustrate this story:

    September 7, 20122Tories at war – Downing Street slams “Begging Bowl” Boris

  • leslie48

    Its  certainly correct we need to formulate how Labour will deal with ‘austerity Britain’ as it will surely have to do given the golden days of the early/mid 2000s & of large financial services tax revenues will not be coming back and we are not yet anywhere near a balanced economy . The two Eds are correct to focus on how we will deal with these issues and how reductions in the welfare spending on the long-term unemployed families/low income groups  will be handled- compared -to the competing needs of infra-structure spending, elderly care, unskilled youth training  & technology investment. The old Left will have to adjust to these new realities.

    But the left as a whole makes little of the massive ‘tax gap’ where large companies such as Vodafone and Amazon  are avoiding tax payments by using Luxembourg. The self-employed paying less tax are another group who seemed blessed. Owen is correct to highlight public support  for greater tax on those who can. But as Gramsci long ago noted the public can hold several ideologies concurrently and I bet given a pre-election propaganda blitz by the Sun, Mail & Express some of that support would wither. 

    Finally I wonder if the Union movement can convert the public’s thinking -and sorry for my slightly rambling pessimism- more union members this Autumn marching up and down in White hall or Left intellectuals talking only to  other does not radically change public opinion. The issue is how you reach out with effective posters etc., and convince tabloid readers of our real tax issues and inequality and how its dysfunctional. 

    Finally down here in the South East things look pretty comfortable- car parks in London are heavily populated with the best German and Japanese 4*4s money can buy, the M25 shows a buzzing & prosperous UK as expensive self-employed and business cars whiz around  on mass ; local schools are at a standstill as lines of the largest vehicles disgorge their prosperous well schooled kids. John Lewis & Waitrose are absolutely booming …

  • markfergusonuk

    …it isn’t…

    • postageincluded

      Identical twin?

  • Pingback: Ed Miliband, Owen Jones And A Poverty Of Ambition « Soupy One

  • Martinay

    Owen: you have a nice patter, true enough. But your bedfellows at Class will just gobble you up. You have been warned!

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