PCC elections: How Labour’s vote changed – and the swing from the Tories to Labour

26th November, 2012 5:40 pm

I’ve noticed that no one seems to have calculated the notional change in the Labour vote between the 2010 General Election figures calculated by the Police Foundation, and the Police & Crime Commissioners elections on 15 November, nor the Conservative to Labour two-party swing in the same period.

So I thought I would.

The resulting tables, ranked by how Labour performed, are below. I’ve noted where the figures are particularly distorted by there only being two candidates. The obvious caveats about these being very low turnout elections with strong independent candidates apply.

For comparison, the YouGov opinion poll on polling day in the PCC elections suggests national voting intentions with a rather higher, 14%, increase in the Labour vote since 2010, and a swing of about 8.5%.

If people have local intel that explains particularly strong or weak outcomes below, please share in the comments.

PCC area Change in Lab vote
Dyfed-Powys 26.5% 2 horse race
North Yorkshire 22.7% 2 horse race
Staffordshire 17.0% 2 horse race
Suffolk 13.8%
Northumbria 11.0%
West Yorkshire 10.4%
Greater Manchester 10.2%
Hertfordshire 9.9%
Derbyshire 9.7%
Thames Valley 8.4%
South Yorkshire 8.3%
West Mercia 7.1%
Warwickshire 7.0%
Bedfordshire 6.7%
Durham 6.3%
Leicestershire 6.3%
Nottinghamshire 6.0%
Wiltshire 5.3%
South Wales 5.2%
Sussex 5.0%
West Midlands 4.0%
Merseyside 4.0%
Lancashire 4.0%
Hampshire 3.6%
Surrey 3.5%
Cambridgeshire 3.5%
Avon & Somerset 3.3%
Norfolk 3.1%
Devon & Cornwall 0.2%
Dorset -0.1%
Northamptonshire -1.4%
Cleveland -1.5%
Essex -2.1%
Gwent -2.9%
North Wales -3.4%
Gloucestershire -3.9%
Cheshire -4.1%
Humberside -6.2%
Cumbria -6.2%
Lincolnshire -8.7%
Kent -10.1%
PCC area    Swing from Con to Lab
Surrey 16.2%
Hampshire 14.2%
Suffolk 12.5%
West Yorkshire 11.1%
Nottinghamshire 11.1%
Greater Manchester 11.0%
Thames Valley 11.0%
Cambridgeshire 11.0%
Derbyshire 10.9%
Warwickshire 10.4%
Sussex 10.0%
Bedfordshire 9.9%
West Midlands 9.2%
Durham 9.0%
Wiltshire 8.5%
Essex 8.5%
West Mercia 8.4%
Avon & Somerset 8.4%
Northamptonshire 8.4%
Dorset 7.9%
Kent 7.8%
Hertfordshire 7.3%
Norfolk 7.3%
South Yorkshire 7.2%
Devon & Cornwall 6.9%
Lincolnshire 6.9%
Leicestershire 6.8%
South Wales 6.6%
Merseyside 6.3%
North Wales 6.1%
North Yorkshire 5.7%
Gwent 5.3%
Humberside 4.5%
Lancashire 4.1%
Northumbria 3.9%
Staffordshire 3.4%
Gloucestershire 2.9%
Dyfed-Powys 2.8%
Cumbria 2.2%
Cheshire -0.1%
Cleveland -1.7%
  • http://twitter.com/jonnymorris Jonny Morris

    Luke, I calculated these figures, too. My numbers are very close to yours. I didn’t publish them because they mean nothing. North Yorkshire, two candidates. Devon & Cornwall, ten. There are so many caveats regarding independents, turn-out, STV, etc, that even a psephologicalporn merchant like myself decided they weremeaningless.

  • John Ruddy

    I guess theres a reason why no one had done it – the low turnout meant there wasnt anything meaningful that could be extrapolated from it.
    Its like when the Lib Dems take a by-election victory for a town council ward and generate a bar chart to suggest they’re set for a landslide.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=715486331 Alex Otley

    I wouldn’t bother trying to draw conclusions from the PCC elections – the turnout was catastrophically low, people didn’t take the elections seriously and there was surge in support for independent candidates that we can safely assume will not be a factor in a general election.

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