PCC elections: How Labour’s vote changed – and the swing from the Tories to Labour

November 26, 2012 5:40 pm

I’ve noticed that no one seems to have calculated the notional change in the Labour vote between the 2010 General Election figures calculated by the Police Foundation, and the Police & Crime Commissioners elections on 15 November, nor the Conservative to Labour two-party swing in the same period.

So I thought I would.

The resulting tables, ranked by how Labour performed, are below. I’ve noted where the figures are particularly distorted by there only being two candidates. The obvious caveats about these being very low turnout elections with strong independent candidates apply.

For comparison, the YouGov opinion poll on polling day in the PCC elections suggests national voting intentions with a rather higher, 14%, increase in the Labour vote since 2010, and a swing of about 8.5%.

If people have local intel that explains particularly strong or weak outcomes below, please share in the comments.

PCC area Change in Lab vote
Dyfed-Powys 26.5% 2 horse race
North Yorkshire 22.7% 2 horse race
Staffordshire 17.0% 2 horse race
Suffolk 13.8%
Northumbria 11.0%
West Yorkshire 10.4%
Greater Manchester 10.2%
Hertfordshire 9.9%
Derbyshire 9.7%
Thames Valley 8.4%
South Yorkshire 8.3%
West Mercia 7.1%
Warwickshire 7.0%
Bedfordshire 6.7%
Durham 6.3%
Leicestershire 6.3%
Nottinghamshire 6.0%
Wiltshire 5.3%
South Wales 5.2%
Sussex 5.0%
West Midlands 4.0%
Merseyside 4.0%
Lancashire 4.0%
Hampshire 3.6%
Surrey 3.5%
Cambridgeshire 3.5%
Avon & Somerset 3.3%
Norfolk 3.1%
Devon & Cornwall 0.2%
Dorset -0.1%
Northamptonshire -1.4%
Cleveland -1.5%
Essex -2.1%
Gwent -2.9%
North Wales -3.4%
Gloucestershire -3.9%
Cheshire -4.1%
Humberside -6.2%
Cumbria -6.2%
Lincolnshire -8.7%
Kent -10.1%
PCC area    Swing from Con to Lab
Surrey 16.2%
Hampshire 14.2%
Suffolk 12.5%
West Yorkshire 11.1%
Nottinghamshire 11.1%
Greater Manchester 11.0%
Thames Valley 11.0%
Cambridgeshire 11.0%
Derbyshire 10.9%
Warwickshire 10.4%
Sussex 10.0%
Bedfordshire 9.9%
West Midlands 9.2%
Durham 9.0%
Wiltshire 8.5%
Essex 8.5%
West Mercia 8.4%
Avon & Somerset 8.4%
Northamptonshire 8.4%
Dorset 7.9%
Kent 7.8%
Hertfordshire 7.3%
Norfolk 7.3%
South Yorkshire 7.2%
Devon & Cornwall 6.9%
Lincolnshire 6.9%
Leicestershire 6.8%
South Wales 6.6%
Merseyside 6.3%
North Wales 6.1%
North Yorkshire 5.7%
Gwent 5.3%
Humberside 4.5%
Lancashire 4.1%
Northumbria 3.9%
Staffordshire 3.4%
Gloucestershire 2.9%
Dyfed-Powys 2.8%
Cumbria 2.2%
Cheshire -0.1%
Cleveland -1.7%
  • http://twitter.com/jonnymorris Jonny Morris

    Luke, I calculated these figures, too. My numbers are very close to yours. I didn’t publish them because they mean nothing. North Yorkshire, two candidates. Devon & Cornwall, ten. There are so many caveats regarding independents, turn-out, STV, etc, that even a psephologicalporn merchant like myself decided they weremeaningless.

  • John Ruddy

    I guess theres a reason why no one had done it – the low turnout meant there wasnt anything meaningful that could be extrapolated from it.
    Its like when the Lib Dems take a by-election victory for a town council ward and generate a bar chart to suggest they’re set for a landslide.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=715486331 Alex Otley

    I wouldn’t bother trying to draw conclusions from the PCC elections – the turnout was catastrophically low, people didn’t take the elections seriously and there was surge in support for independent candidates that we can safely assume will not be a factor in a general election.

Latest

  • Comment Welcome to Manchester – 2019

    Welcome to Manchester – 2019

    Greetings, LabourList readers. I am the Ghost of Conference Yet To Come. Thanks to advances in time-travel technology I write from Manchester in September 2019, where after a disappointing ‘no’ vote on the referendum to declare independence from the UK for the entire North West region – a scheme known as County Palatine Max – we are, like the rest of the country, once again wearily eyeing an approaching general election. The future in question is one in which, inevitably, […]

    Read more →
  • Featured Nostalgia: Britain’s (not so) secret weapon – and weakness

    Nostalgia: Britain’s (not so) secret weapon – and weakness

    It was the gulp wot won it. That gulp you took when you heard or read this. “There is not a cemetery in Europe that does not have Scots, English, Welsh, and Irish lying side-by-side. And when young men were injured in these wars, they didn’t look to each other and ask whether you were Scots or English, they came to each other’s aid because we were part of a common cause.” Relax – this will not be another “how […]

    Read more →
  • News Labour will make the economy work for all working people – not just a few, announces Balls

    Labour will make the economy work for all working people – not just a few, announces Balls

    Tomorrow, Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls will address the Labour Party Conference to set out how a next Labour Government will deal with the economy. He will stress the Labour leadership’s economic credibility by saying that they will “balance the books”. But, interestingly, he will also go on to make clear that they are aware that “an economic plan must do much more than that.” Hinting at the stark economic imbalance in the UK, Balls will say “We also need to […]

    Read more →
  • Comment Englishness, identity and social justice

    Englishness, identity and social justice

    Democracy and social justice are inseparable. Any socialist knows that. It’s why we saw the expansion of the pillars of social justice – free education, health, social security – following the expansion of universal suffrage. It’s why Labour is a Democratic Socialist party. It’s why it needs to be the party of English and British democratic reform. Yet, the impression it has given over the last few days is that democratic change is something to be quarantined, decontaminated and then […]

    Read more →
  • Comment Laying the Foundations for a Labour Century

    Laying the Foundations for a Labour Century

    This post is written by Liz Kendall MP and John Woodcock MP Britain stands at a crossroads. Scotland rejected separation, but the large numbers of traditionally Labour supporters voting Yes has highlighted an undercurrent of deep dissatisfaction that is reflected across the United Kingdom. One future path would see our country seeking to reject and counter the forces of change that are deeply unsettling many communities and threatening our established place in the world. The other would embrace change as […]

    Read more →