PCC elections: How Labour’s vote changed – and the swing from the Tories to Labour

November 26, 2012 5:40 pm

I’ve noticed that no one seems to have calculated the notional change in the Labour vote between the 2010 General Election figures calculated by the Police Foundation, and the Police & Crime Commissioners elections on 15 November, nor the Conservative to Labour two-party swing in the same period.

So I thought I would.

The resulting tables, ranked by how Labour performed, are below. I’ve noted where the figures are particularly distorted by there only being two candidates. The obvious caveats about these being very low turnout elections with strong independent candidates apply.

For comparison, the YouGov opinion poll on polling day in the PCC elections suggests national voting intentions with a rather higher, 14%, increase in the Labour vote since 2010, and a swing of about 8.5%.

If people have local intel that explains particularly strong or weak outcomes below, please share in the comments.

PCC area Change in Lab vote
Dyfed-Powys 26.5% 2 horse race
North Yorkshire 22.7% 2 horse race
Staffordshire 17.0% 2 horse race
Suffolk 13.8%
Northumbria 11.0%
West Yorkshire 10.4%
Greater Manchester 10.2%
Hertfordshire 9.9%
Derbyshire 9.7%
Thames Valley 8.4%
South Yorkshire 8.3%
West Mercia 7.1%
Warwickshire 7.0%
Bedfordshire 6.7%
Durham 6.3%
Leicestershire 6.3%
Nottinghamshire 6.0%
Wiltshire 5.3%
South Wales 5.2%
Sussex 5.0%
West Midlands 4.0%
Merseyside 4.0%
Lancashire 4.0%
Hampshire 3.6%
Surrey 3.5%
Cambridgeshire 3.5%
Avon & Somerset 3.3%
Norfolk 3.1%
Devon & Cornwall 0.2%
Dorset -0.1%
Northamptonshire -1.4%
Cleveland -1.5%
Essex -2.1%
Gwent -2.9%
North Wales -3.4%
Gloucestershire -3.9%
Cheshire -4.1%
Humberside -6.2%
Cumbria -6.2%
Lincolnshire -8.7%
Kent -10.1%
PCC area    Swing from Con to Lab
Surrey 16.2%
Hampshire 14.2%
Suffolk 12.5%
West Yorkshire 11.1%
Nottinghamshire 11.1%
Greater Manchester 11.0%
Thames Valley 11.0%
Cambridgeshire 11.0%
Derbyshire 10.9%
Warwickshire 10.4%
Sussex 10.0%
Bedfordshire 9.9%
West Midlands 9.2%
Durham 9.0%
Wiltshire 8.5%
Essex 8.5%
West Mercia 8.4%
Avon & Somerset 8.4%
Northamptonshire 8.4%
Dorset 7.9%
Kent 7.8%
Hertfordshire 7.3%
Norfolk 7.3%
South Yorkshire 7.2%
Devon & Cornwall 6.9%
Lincolnshire 6.9%
Leicestershire 6.8%
South Wales 6.6%
Merseyside 6.3%
North Wales 6.1%
North Yorkshire 5.7%
Gwent 5.3%
Humberside 4.5%
Lancashire 4.1%
Northumbria 3.9%
Staffordshire 3.4%
Gloucestershire 2.9%
Dyfed-Powys 2.8%
Cumbria 2.2%
Cheshire -0.1%
Cleveland -1.7%
  • http://twitter.com/jonnymorris Jonny Morris

    Luke, I calculated these figures, too. My numbers are very close to yours. I didn’t publish them because they mean nothing. North Yorkshire, two candidates. Devon & Cornwall, ten. There are so many caveats regarding independents, turn-out, STV, etc, that even a psephologicalporn merchant like myself decided they weremeaningless.

  • John Ruddy

    I guess theres a reason why no one had done it – the low turnout meant there wasnt anything meaningful that could be extrapolated from it.
    Its like when the Lib Dems take a by-election victory for a town council ward and generate a bar chart to suggest they’re set for a landslide.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=715486331 Alex Otley

    I wouldn’t bother trying to draw conclusions from the PCC elections – the turnout was catastrophically low, people didn’t take the elections seriously and there was surge in support for independent candidates that we can safely assume will not be a factor in a general election.

Latest

  • Comment Reforming bus services is an important aspect to revitalising many local economies

    Reforming bus services is an important aspect to revitalising many local economies

    Rail services and infrastructure dominate the debate around transport, but with two thirds of all public transport journeys made by bus we are right to talk more about the importance of local bus services. I serve an area with no rail or light rail link, where many people are entirely dependent on buses. I hear from older residents who are left cut off and isolated, unable to easily access GP or hospital appointments. Shift workers who simply cannot get to […]

    Read more →
  • Comment A rent increase for our Armed Forces tells you all you need to know about David Cameron

    A rent increase for our Armed Forces tells you all you need to know about David Cameron

    This week the Government announced that it would be making changes to accommodation for our service personnel and their families. At first glance you might think that is good news because quite frankly, housing for our service personnel and their families is, at the moment, barely adequate. But what the MoD were actually announcing, hidden under details about a new contract for maintenance, was that our armed forces will now have to pay more in rent to live in accommodation that […]

    Read more →
  • News Scotland Who are the potential candidates for next leader of the Scottish Labour Party?

    Who are the potential candidates for next leader of the Scottish Labour Party?

    Johann Lamont has resigned as leader of the Scottish Labour Party, prompting a new leadership race. As we noted this morning, candidates do not necessarily have to be MSPs, as long as they stand in the Holyrood elections in 2016 – meaning that the next leader could currently be a Westminster MP. So, who are the potential candidates? Here (in alphabetical order) are some of the names that are being mentioned: Douglas Alexander MP: Labour’s Shadow Foreign Secretary and elections […]

    Read more →
  • Featured Scotland Why Lamont left – and what happens next?

    Why Lamont left – and what happens next?

    Johann Lamont’s resignation was a surprise, if only in terms of timing. Politicians – especially party leaders – rarely resign in newspaper interviews released over the weekend. Yet it seems this decision had been coming for a while. This was not something that transpired over a matter of days, but weeks, months or even years (depending on who you speak to). Lamont has made the right decision to step down. She was facing increasing fire both internally and externally, and didn’t […]

    Read more →
  • News Labour “can indeed win”: Blair denies doom-mongering

    Labour “can indeed win”: Blair denies doom-mongering

    The Scottish Labour Party is not the only headache for Ed Miliband this morning. The Telegraph’s front page doesn’t make for the best reading either, running with the news that Tony Blair predicts a Tory victory next year: However, the story is not all it seems. The only quote The Telegraph supplies is from an anonymous source who claims that the former Labour PM made the prediction in a private meeting with them: “The Conservatives will be the next government […]

    Read more →