Cameron’s EU poll bounce – was that it?

30th January, 2013 9:43 am

Regular LabourList readers will know that although I was expecting the Tories to get a poll boost out of Cameron’s Europe speech, I was also quite surprised at how small it was. Now the Labour lead is back up to 9 points with YouGov. Does that mean the Cameron bounce has ended  just a week after the speech? Labour’s poll lead is still smaller than it was before the speech, but it seems to have stabilised and perhaps even started growing again. This chart suggests so:

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(h/t: Mike Smithson)

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  • Most voters really don’t vote on Europe as first priority. And I think those who are very passionate about leaving are, on the whole, not likely to vote Labour. Movement is likely to be between the Tories and UKIP.

    • Brumanuensis

      I believe that’s exactly what YouGov found, if I recall what Anthony Wells wrote about the ‘bounce’ on UKPollingReport.

  • NT86

    All it might have done was shave a bit off UKIP’s support. In the long-term even that is debtateable, because there is going to be a lot of obstacles which Cameron will need to overcome regarding a referendum. Plus with Nigel Farage being such a strong media performer, there’s far more of UKIP to come, IMO.

    I don’t oppose a referendum at all, but strongly believe in reforming the EU. If anything, that is what Labour should pledge at the moment if they can’t on a referendum.

    As for the polling figures, the Tories aren’t showing signs of particularly harming Labour, whose voters may not be worrying so much about the EU; and further harnessing ex-Lib Dem voters.

  • Chilbaldi

    Mark – I believe I told you that exactly this would happen when I commented on your hyperbolic doomsday article of a week ago.

    • aracataca

      You did indeed Chilbaldi. The promise of a referendum if this, that and the other happens (eg the Tories win the next election) was never going to save Cameron. In time it will be seen for what it is namely, shallow populism by Cameron aimed at nothing more than attempting to tame UKIP and the Tory right in order to save his own skin. It just isn’t going to work.

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