Cameron’s EU poll bounce – was that it?

30th January, 2013 9:43 am

Regular LabourList readers will know that although I was expecting the Tories to get a poll boost out of Cameron’s Europe speech, I was also quite surprised at how small it was. Now the Labour lead is back up to 9 points with YouGov. Does that mean the Cameron bounce has ended  just a week after the speech? Labour’s poll lead is still smaller than it was before the speech, but it seems to have stabilised and perhaps even started growing again. This chart suggests so:

BB1xhYJCQAAzILv.jpg-large

(h/t: Mike Smithson)

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

    Most voters really don’t vote on Europe as first priority. And I think those who are very passionate about leaving are, on the whole, not likely to vote Labour. Movement is likely to be between the Tories and UKIP.

    • Brumanuensis

      I believe that’s exactly what YouGov found, if I recall what Anthony Wells wrote about the ‘bounce’ on UKPollingReport.

  • NT86

    All it might have done was shave a bit off UKIP’s support. In the long-term even that is debtateable, because there is going to be a lot of obstacles which Cameron will need to overcome regarding a referendum. Plus with Nigel Farage being such a strong media performer, there’s far more of UKIP to come, IMO.

    I don’t oppose a referendum at all, but strongly believe in reforming the EU. If anything, that is what Labour should pledge at the moment if they can’t on a referendum.

    As for the polling figures, the Tories aren’t showing signs of particularly harming Labour, whose voters may not be worrying so much about the EU; and further harnessing ex-Lib Dem voters.

  • Chilbaldi

    Mark – I believe I told you that exactly this would happen when I commented on your hyperbolic doomsday article of a week ago.

    • aracataca

      You did indeed Chilbaldi. The promise of a referendum if this, that and the other happens (eg the Tories win the next election) was never going to save Cameron. In time it will be seen for what it is namely, shallow populism by Cameron aimed at nothing more than attempting to tame UKIP and the Tory right in order to save his own skin. It just isn’t going to work.

Latest

  • Comment As my elected MP Grant Shapps is supposed to fight my corner – instead he threatened to sue me

    As my elected MP Grant Shapps is supposed to fight my corner – instead he threatened to sue me

    Last year Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP, the Chairman of the Conservative Party, threatened to sue me, a constituent of his, for libelling him on Facebook about his alter-ego as an internet marketing millionaire called Michael Green. He initially demanded damages and, eventually, to post a retraction which read: “I recently made a post suggesting that Grant Shapps MP had lied over the use of a pen name. I now accept that such an assertion was entirely false and that Mr Shapps MP has […]

    Read more →
  • Comment The SNP’s argument that the way to get a Labour Government is to vote against Labour doesn’t stack up

    The SNP’s argument that the way to get a Labour Government is to vote against Labour doesn’t stack up

    We are only on day two of the formal General Election campaign, but already we have learned a lot about the choice facing the people of Scotland on 7 May. Let’s start with Labour’s positive offer. We have a plan to make Scotland the fairest nation on earth. We will make sure working class families in Scotland get a fair shot at life. So we will bring an end to the failed austerity agenda of George Osborne. Unlike other parties, we won’t rely […]

    Read more →
  • Featured Polling Wales Labour lead by 15 points in Wales

    Labour lead by 15 points in Wales

    Welsh Labour have a huge 15 point lead over the Conservatives, according to new polling. The latest YouGov research for ITV shows that Labour are up four points from their result in 2010, when they won 30 of the 40 Westminster seats in Wales. The Tories are down just one point, the Lib Dems are down 15, UKIP are up 12 and Plaid Cyrmu’s support has remained static. The standings suggest Labour could be on course to win around 75% […]

    Read more →
  • Comment The Coalition have risked turning access to justice into the preserve for the wealthy

    The Coalition have risked turning access to justice into the preserve for the wealthy

    This government’s extraordinary hike in court fees risks turning access to justice yet further into the sole preserve of the wealthy or those who have clear cut cases that lawyers know they can win. If we believe that a judicial system is reflective of society, the ‘principles’ of this government cannot be anything we should aspire to. And, while historically the UK legal system has often been a model followed by other countries, our status as international leaders in legal […]

    Read more →
  • News Wales Former Plaid Cymru leader says party “haven’t convinced” voters

    Former Plaid Cymru leader says party “haven’t convinced” voters

    On the day that Plaid Cymru launch their manifesto, their former leader Daffyd Elis-Thomas has said that he has “no issue” with Wales voting for Labour. Elis-Thomas, now a Plaid peer, said he did not think the Welsh people had been “convinced” by his party, and that they were yet to have a clear message. Speaking earlier today, he said that he felt it was Plaid’s “responsibility” to do better than it currently is. He told the BBC: “I have […]

    Read more →
Share with your friends










Submit