Ipsos Mori gives Tories biggest lead since 2010 – with Labour back on 2010 vote share of 29%

As we reported yesterday, the polls have been a mixed bag for Labour in recent days – but not a particularly pleasant mixed bag. The “best” polls for Labour give us a small lead, but there have been occasional polls recently putting the Tories in the lead.

Today the Tories have taken their biggest lead in any poll since 2010, with an Ipsos-Mori poll for the Evening Standard putting the Tories three points ahead. The good news for Labour – if you can call it that – is that the Tories are still polling poorly, on just 32%. Of course the bad news – and it is bad news – for Labour is that we’re on 29%, the same vote share we got back in the disastrous 2010 general election. The poll has both parties tied on 30% before taking into account likelihood to vote, but the Tories move into lead amongst those certain to vote.

Of course it’s important not to dwell on a single poll – especially after a difficult week for the Labour party and Miliband – but the trend in recent weeks does seem to be towards a very slim Labour lead, or a very slim Tory lead. In real terms, that probably means the two parties are effectively tied…

The poll also makes gruesome reading for Ed Miliband, with Ipsos-Mori stating:

“This is the lowest proportion to back the Leader of the Opposition as ready for the premiership that we have recorded, going back to Tony Blair in 1994.”

Miliband will need to tackle this – and recent questions around his leadership – in his speech tomorrow morning.

Update: A Labour source contacts us to say:

“The public don’t like divided parties. We aren’t too surprised the coverage of the last few days is pushing down our vote. No-one should be in any doubt this is going to be a very close election”