Poll List: ComRes points to a hung parliament

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A ComRes poll for today’s Indpendent shows a drop in support for the Conservatives and again points toward the likelihood of a hung parliament after the next general election.

The Tories have droped three points to 37%, while Labour remain unchanged from last month’s equivalent survey on 27%. The Liberal Democrats move up 1% to 20%.

According to the UK Polling Report swing calculator, this would translate into a 69 seat majority for the Tories, with 316 seats to Labour’s 247, but the Tories would remain 10 seats short of a working majority. The Tories have no been below 40% in a number of recent national polls.

In today’s Independent, Andrew Grice says this survey:

“will raise Labour’s hopes that the party might yet deprive David Cameron of victory and, if it can close the gap further, even hang on to office. Gordon Brown hopes the polls are starting to shift as people stop regarding them less as a “referendum” on the Government and think more about the “choice” they will make at the election, which is expected next April or May. Labour strategists believe recent polls reflect greater scrutiny of the Tories’ policies. Labour’s private polling suggests the party’s attacks on Mr Cameron’s plans to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1m have persuaded some voters the Tories are a “party for the rich”.

Moreover, 56% of respondents are now optimistic about the economy, with a reduced 42% pessimistic. 71% of people are now optimistic about their own personal financial outlook.

The poll shows no increase in Labour’s support, but the party will be pleased that they are countering David Cameron’s message more effectively than they were before conference season, or that the Tories are still having trouble gaining the sort of traction they would like.