Why staying at home is a vote for the BNP

By Will Straw / @wdjstraw

The campaign for the European elections has begun. Labour’s party election broadcast makes a strong case against David Cameron’s plans to cut key public services and benefits. It ends with the line, “Under the Conservatives life will be better for some, but for most of us a lot more bruising.”

This is an important argument and one which will define the general election. But critics will correctly argue that the advert didn’t once mention Europe or make a case for Britain’s involvement at its centre.

On Tuesday, I attended a ‘new media and diplomacy’ roundtable with David Miliband at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C. In answer to a question about the ‘special relationship,’ Miliband said, “Britain’s place at the heart of Europe is critical to Britain’s relationship with the US. The biggest threat to the US-UK relationship is if Britain marginalises itself in Europe.”

If arguments of this nature are not made to domestic audiences over the next month, it will be a missed opportunity to expose one of David Cameron’s riskiest decisions: to split from the European People’s Party and marginalise the influence of the Conservative Party within the European Parliament.

But I suspect that these lines of attack have been left off the table because of a fear by Labour’s high command that the elections on June 4th will be a referendum on the Government. In these circumstances it makes good tactical sense to focus on domestic politics rather than Europe. But the expenses scandal, which has now tarnished the Conservatives and other parties as well as Labour, could turn the election into a referendum on mainstream politics altogether.

Despite the deep policy differences between Labour and the Tories on fiscal policy, attitudes towards the European Union, and countless other issues, the expenses scandal plays into the hands of those who claim that politicians are all the same. A voter with these sentiments may be tempted to abstain. If this takes place in large numbers, it will be a huge boost to Nick Griffin’s British National Party, as Antony Painter has argued.

Turnout at the 2004 European elections hit 38.9%. This was the highest since the European Parliament was first elected in 1979, and up dramatically from 24.0% in 1999. A slide back towards that level would hugely increase the BNP’s likelihood of gaining representation in the European Parliament.

Analysis quoted in the Guardian last week outlined that the BNP could be elected in the North West with just 7.5% of the vote and would be guaranteed a European seat with 9%. In 2004 they gained 134,959 votes (6.4%). My back of the envelope calculation shows that if the BNP could hold this steady while turnout fell back to 28%, they would send a representative to Strasbourg. If turnout fell back to the levels seen in 2004, they would send an MEP from the West Midlands too. And this assumes that they do not pick up any votes from the collapse of the UK Independence Party or from new disaffected voters. This eventuality could result in further gains across Yorkshire and Humber, London, and the East Midlands.

So if you’re out on the doorstep over the next three weeks, or trying to persuade your friends to vote Labour, and the arguments shown in the broadcast or set out by David Miliband are getting you nowhere, implore them at the very least to vote (even if they just spoil their ballot). After all, staying at home this time is as good as supporting opposition to mass immigration, withdrawal from the European Union, linking foreign aid with voluntary resettlement, an end to British peace keeping missions, and the restoration of capital punishment. Never mind a bruising, that outcome would be a punch in the face to us all.