Tory retreat: you’re surprised, suckers?

By Hopi Sen / @hopisen

So William Hague has confirmed what most of us had guessed already – that David Cameron’s “one at a time” European referendum policy was merely a cover for junking the referendum pledge once the treaty was signed.

So what will Cameron do now?

Well, I reckon he’s going to prove me a seer again. Here’s what I said a few weeks ago:

“Unfortunately, to have a post ratification vote would be tantamount to spitting in the faces of France and Germany…

So what will he do? It seems obvious. Before the election he quietly signals to Europe that he won’t hold a referendum, while trying to keep Eurosceptics on side by promising to “fight Britain’s corner” in other ways. This is where we are now.

Post election he will try to negotiate some package of reform with our European partners, then present whatever he gets as a diplomatic triumph and perhaps hold a referendum on that, which he will be able to endorse. In other words, he would follow the Harold Wilson playbook.”

Seems to be coming true so far.

So here’s what I expect Cameron will do.

1. Blame Lisbon on Gordon Brown and launch a heavy personal attack on the behaviour of the Government, both in terms of relationship with EU and for “not standing up for Britain”

2. Say that he desperately wanted a referendum, but you can’t have one on an international agreement that is already in place. Curses.

3. Say that despite this, he is passionately opposed to the direction the EU is taking – President, centralisation, lack of democracy, etc, etc, and is passionate about making that case in Europe and in Britain.

4. Say that he has faith that a government that fought for Britain could create a Europe Britain was comfortable in. Hint at Thatcher and Churchill.

5. Announce that therefore an incoming Tory government would immediately launch a plan to renegotiate key elements of Lisbon back to UK government. List some “tests” or red lines he will expect to be met. Acute watchers will note some careful phrasing in this section.

6. Announce that once that process is completed “the British people will be given their say.” This works both as a threat to EU to encourage co-operation and as a sop to referendum hard liners.

What Cameron won’t say, but will intend, would follow on from that:

7. My first prioirity is to win the election, we can have the negotiations with the EU soon after, led by Hague or some other approved Eurosceptic, providing cover for the leader.

8. We can win some concessions from the EU leaders while gov’t is fresh. Probably not huge ones, but enough to declare victory.

9. Once we’ve got something on paper we should declare victory, then hold referendum on whatever deal is secured, knowing that Labour, Lib Dems and most Tories would have to come in behind package, for fear of worse. Just as happened in 1975.

Will this work?

Depends what you mean by work, ma’am. I think it will work for the media and the Tory base before the general election. You get the sense that the prosepct of government is letting a lot of Eurosceptics see what they want to see.

What it won’t do is make much of a difference to Britain’s relationship with the EU, other than bog it down in a series of fairly petty negotiations. Britain can’t demand too much change, as there would always be the temptation for France and Germany to say “off you jolly well go then”, while France and Germany won’t want to humiliate a new British government, so will offer something, knowing Cameron needs a deal he can sell at home.

In that sense, it’ll be a success. However, in government, it will become increasingly clear that even as Cameron declares victory, there will be no root and branch reform of Europe. In the end, this will not be enough for the ideological Eurosceptics, who will regard any concessions Cameron makes as a sell out. (There will also be ambitious sceptics, who will discover the virtues of words like pragmatism and partnership in their ministerial cars).

In the end, the Better Off Out boys and girls will realise that the Tory party may be flirts, but they won’t stay the night. Some will go to UKIP, some will begin a Bennite insurgency. Cameron will attempt to argue that he genuinely went as far as he could, but for many in the Conservative party, this will be seen as a sell out.

However, it would be a sell out conducted in office. For some, that will be enough. For others, it would be the final straw.

Actually you know what concerns me about this? That I find the best guide to likely Tory leadership actions is cynicism about political manoeuvres. The Tories mean what they say, but that what they say is so carefully constructed that you can read into it an entirely seperate layer of meaning.

The truth is, they want power back from Europe, but they don’t want to leave Europe. In the end therefore, they want a deal. It’s just that saying that now would mean a crisis within the party.

Far better to kick it down the road. At least then, they might be in office.

In a way, I hope David Cameron disproves my cynicism.