Populus, Jan 12: Con 41, Lab 28, LD 19

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A new Populus poll for this morning’s Times shows Labour’s support slipping badly over the last month.

The Conservatives rise 3 points to 41%, with Labour down 2 points to 28% and the Lib Dems on 19%.

Mike Smithson at Political Betting says:

“The figures will hit Labour hard because it comes from the pollster that has tended to produce the best numbers for the party and the lowest for the Tories.”

In December, the same pollsters showed Labour making small inroads on the Tories and the gap reduced to 8 points.

These numbers show Labour’s support at its lowest since conference season, and buck the trend of improving polls for the party. They also give the Tories their highest voter share since September.

Translated broadly to a general election using the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator, this poll would give the Tories a Commons majority of 58, with 354 seats to Labour’s 224.

But the Times also reports “worrying” findings for the Tories. David Cameron “is regarded by 40% – down five percentage points since last October – as the best leader to deal with the recession”, while 50% believe he is on the side of the rich over ordinary people. Gordon Brown is seen as on the side of ordinary people, by 64% to 26% who feel he is on the side of the rich.