Populus, Dec 7: Con 38, Lab 30, LD 20

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A Populus poll for tomorrow’s Times has the gap between Labour and the Tories at just 8 points, with Labour up one point to 30% on last month, and the Conservatives down one point on 38%. The Lib Dems are up two points on 20%.

It’s the first time this year that Populus has shown a single digit lead for the Tories, and if transferred broadly to a general election would deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories 27 seats short of a working majority, according to the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator.

3 in 5 of respondents still think that still think the Tories will be the largest single party after the election, but the number expecting a Tory overall majority has fallen from 57% in October to 47% in December. The number thinking a Labour majority is likely has risen from 16% to 19%.

Mike Smithson at Political Betting says:

“There’s little doubt that this will add fuel to the hung parliament debate and will give real hope for Labour that maybe, after all that they’ve seen, there is just a chance.”