Poll List: Gap down to 7 points; 82% are unclear on Tory economic policy

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

After three polls at the weekend showed the Tory lead being edged down to 9 points, a new ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Independent shows the lead narrowing again to 7%.

The new poll shows the Tories on 38%, unchanged from last week, with Labour up two points to 31% and the Lib Dems unchanged on 19%.

Translated broadly to a general election the new numbers would result in a hung parliament, with the Conservatives 30 seats short of a working majority on 296 seats, and Labour 20 behind on 276 seats, according to the UK Polling Report’s Swing Calculator.

The poll is significant because it vindicates the weekend’s improving polling scores for Labour. Moreover, it builds on recent trends; whereas the Tory lead was once consistently around 17%, it is now consistently between 7 and 10%.

Aside from the important topline scores, there are also a couple of interesting sub stories worth noting. First, the poll again highlights David Cameron’s difficulty in appealing to women voters: while the Tories are 16 points ahead among men, they trail Labour by four points among women.

The poll also suggests the public have doubts about the Tories’ economic policies. 82% of people (and 82% of Tory supporters) believe the Tories should be clearer over what they would do about the economy.

And only 24% of respondents believe the recession would have ended earlier had the Tories been in power. 69% disagree.

However, while 40% of people say they trust Gordon Brown more than Cameron to help the recovery, 52% do not. Voters are also not yet willing to give Labour credit for the recovery, with only 37% saying Labour can take the credit for getting Britain out of recession.

Follow the polling trends since conference season with the LabourList poll tracker.