Poll List: Populus poll points to hung parliament

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A new Populus poll for Tuesday’s Times shows “the race between the Conservatives and Labour has tightened this year and voters increasingly [33%] expect a hung parliament after the general election”.

The poll shows Labour up two points to 30%, with the Tories slipping a point to 40%. The Lib Dems are up one point to 20%. These numbers would deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories 3 seats short of a working majority on 323 seats and Labour on 248.

But the Times says the poll suggests 70% believe that:

“society is broken, echoing a Conservative campaign theme of the past two years, while 68% say people who play by the rules get a raw deal and 82% think it is time for a change.”

The Times also says:

“Backing for the Tories has been stable since last summer at around 40%…If the Tories were one point higher, and Labour one point lower, David Cameron would have an overall majority of 36. These estimates assume a uniform national swing, or switch, of votes, but, in practice, there are likely to be regional and local variations. Moreover, there is evidence that the Tories may be doing better in their key target seats which would mean an overall majority at this level of national support.”

The poll was conducted over the weekend, after the publication of the Legg Report. Revealingly, 32% of voters said that if their local MP was among those required to repay money, they would vote against him or her purely on those grounds, and regardless of the party they support.

More positively, 52% of people now expect themselves and their families to do well over the next year and 60% of those polled say they look to the future with optimism.