ICM, March 21st: Con 38, Lab 32, LD 19

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: The YouGov tracker tonight has:

Con 38% (+2)

Lab 31% (-1)

LD 19% (-1)

A new ICM poll for tomorrow’s New of the World shows the Tory lead at six points. The topline poll results are:

Conservatives 38% (-2)

Labour 32% (+1)

Lib Dems 19% (-1)

Those numbers, translated on a uniform swing, would deliver a hung parliament, with the Conservatives 39 seats short of a working majority on 287 seats, and Labour on 285, according to the UK Polling report’s swing calculator.

ICM’s research was based on interviews with 1,002 people between March 17th and 18th.

YouGov’s daily tracking poll will follow later.