Policies, personalities…the countdown continues

By James Valentine

Does policy matter? On the face of it, not very much. Electors often don’t have much to say about political parties’ policies, or even necessarily show much interest in them. On the other hand if there’s an absence of policy, then people notice. The Tories’ wobble in the last couple of months has come about because people have perceived a hole where policy should be. There have been too many errors like that misplaced decimal point that conveniently multiplied by ten the number of schoolgirl mothers. And people are sceptical about a supposedly reformed Conservative Party that offers tax breaks for the richest estates and wants to bring back fox-hunting.

The next parliamentary term will see unparalled financial austerity and some have commented that this will make difficulties for Labour in its own manifesto. But this isn’t necessarily the case – for example House of Lords reform, which has already been signalled, will be a revolutionary change but it doesn’t involve a major spending commitment.

Labour’s manifesto will be a positive document based around the idea of a sustainable economy and locking in the improvements that we’ve already made to public services. It won’t skate over the difficulties but it will nail what Alan Johnson calls the “big fat lie” of “Broken Britain”.

The tight public finances could actually benefit Labour because the commitments pencilled in are fully costed and can be defended. The same isn’t true of the Tories. For example, their signature “free schools” policy is based on the extraordinary idea of creating a deliberate surplus of school places in order to allow parents easily to “shop around”. Gove still hasn’t explained the costings behind it, as James Mills noted yesterday.

The Tories are, I suspect, already regretting Osborne’s decision to make public debt their key issue. Next Wednesday, Alistair Darling will stand vindicated, yet again, by the recent reduction in unemployment which has led to lower than anticipated borrowing. He is right to continue to support employment to get the economy moving. But in the medium term he will set out strict measures to rebalance the public finances. His prescription will be drastic, and yet all the Tories will do is bleat for more, without saying where they would cut.

Policy is undoubtedly the Tories’ weakness, but it won’t necessarily stop them. Although his friend Osborne couldn’t convince a flea, Cameron himself is a plausible fellow. He appears to have no convictions and he has changed his mind on just about everything.

But he’s got something on offer to anyone who’s disgruntled by Labour – no matter that his ideas are contradictory. And a third term government, by definition, means a lot of disgruntled voters.

Let’s hope Gordon can pin him down in the debates. In the meantime, winning will be hard work, and that’s why I along with thousands of other activists will be talking to electors this weekend.