ICM, April 5th: Con 37%, Lab 33%, LD 21%

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: A second poll, conducted by Opinium for the Express, shows the Tories at 39% (+1), Labour on 29% (+1).

A new ICM poll tonight in the Guardian shows Labour up four points to 33%, with the Tories down one point to 37% and the Lib Dems down two points to 21% – the night before the election is expected to be called by the Prime Minister. The Guardian reports that this is the smallest gap between Labour and the Tories in an ICM poll for almost two years.

The new poll’s numbers, translated to a general election on a uniform swing, would deliver a hung parliament, with Labour the largest party in the House of Commons and 30 seats short of a working majority, according to the UK Polling Report’s Swing Calculator.

The new poll breaks the trend of an increasing lead for the Conservatives. With such a shift, it could be the tightening could be an anomaly – or it could be that, as the election campaign proper draws in, people are reconsidering how they will vote.

More will emerge with other polls later tonight.