New ICM poll shows even number of seats in a hung parliament

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: 22:30 ComRes for ITN/The Independent shows: Con 37%, Lab 30%, LD 20% – also a hung parliament, but with the Tories as the biggest party.

YouGov shows the Tories on 39%, Labour on 33%.

A new ICM poll for the Guardian shows Labour has taken a slight hit from the National Insurance battle last week, but that David Cameron cannot “seal the deal”.

The poll shows the Tories unchanged on 37%, with Labour down two points on 31%, and the Lib Dems on 20%.

Translated on a uniform swing to a general election, those numbers would deliver a hung parliament, with Labour and the Tories in a dead head on 283 seats each, according to the UK Polling Report.

The Guardian reports:

“The Conservatives have failed to press home their apparent advantage in the first week of election campaigning, according to a Guardian/ICM poll today that puts the Tory lead over Labour at just six points.

“Although David Cameron is judged to have the best policies on tax after a week dominated by his party’s national insurance plans, that perception does not appear to be translating into votes, with support for the Tories is as low as at any point in the last two years.

“The poll shows neither main party has broken through decisively. The Tories are on 37%, unchanged on a Guardian/ICM poll carried out a week ago but down one point on a more recent ICM poll last weekend. Labour, on 31%, is down two points on the last Guardian poll and up one point on the more recent survey.”

There will be more polling information at 10pm tonight, including from ComRes and YouGov, and LabourList’s Polynomial analysis.