A question of trust

By Diana Smith

I have just finished listening to PMQs. David Cameron answered a question from Harriet Harman on crime with a whole string of statistics to supposedly show that violent crime had risen under Labour. Harriet Harman vigorously contested Cameron’s use of statistics.

I am seriously concerned by this trend. During the early days of the general election campaign a row broke out, when Chris Grayling, the then shadow home secretary, came out with what appeared to be very similar assertions on Labour’s crime rate.

These were picked up by the reporter Mark Easton who established that the assertions were based on the comparison of two sets of figures which should not have been compared. The matter was explored in an interview with Grayling on the Today Programme.

The Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Michael Scholar was seriously concerned that using statistics in this way could have the effect of undermining trust in crime statistics, and subsequently published a document to express those concerns.

Continued confusion or distrust in statistics could have serious consequences. If we reach a point where each side is only prepared to trust the statistics it likes, it becomes impossible for us to engage in a calm, pragmatic analysis of what the problems are and what needs to be done.

Effective politics is about being able to talk to people that we do not necessarily like. Good statistics is a tool to make this possible. Bad statistics can have the effect of locking people into polarised positions. The stalemate that happened in today’s PMQs is a clear example of that, and how it can damage our understanding of and insight into crucial policy discussions.

We all like statistics which confirm our own position, but persuading people to shift from believing what they want to believe to what is statistically the truth will often rely on people being able to trust the information presented, and by reliable, trustworthy sources.

So this government already has a credibility a problem when it comes to statistics. I, for one, do not believe what I am being told. And I do not think I am alone in that. We need to see the coalition move to a much more careful, and consistent, use of statistical material. Otherwise, the country will find it increasingly difficult to hear and believe what it is trying to communicate.