The Big Mo

By Joe Caluori / @Croslandite

In a Venn diagram in which ‘Set A’ is politics and ‘Set B’ is physics, it is likely that ‘momentum’ is one of the few things that lies in the intersection. In an election, momentum is the most prized attribute of a candidate or Party; the problem of course is that ‘the big mo’ is highly subjective.

What is momentum? The definition of momentum is mass multiplied by velocity. It would be unkind to speculate on the mass of leadership contenders, and I think I speak for many when I say that the velocity of the campaign has seemed to be terminal for a couple of months now.

Of course, every campaign will claim momentum, with varying degrees of credibility, but there are certain attributes and qualities that do create the appearance of momentum. In the 2007 deputy leadership election, momentum was seen through endorsements; firstly through nominations from MPs, then unions, then CLPs and ‘celebrity’ backers.

There was a fair amount of nonsense around who Gordon Brown’s chosen candidate was; Harriet, Alan or Hilary. Looking at how ‘Brownite’ MPs stacked up was the favoured method of divination, but of course their nominations were spread across the candidates. It almost seemed that Gordon had deliberately spread his acolytes in order to avoid the appearance of favouritism. You’d have to ask the MPs who nominated different candidates as to their motivations. A good place to start might be Ed Balls nomination of Alan Johnson.

In this election, the perennial media favourite of bookies odds puts it at 20-1 that the next leader won’t be a Miliband, but overall it’s been a difficult task to pin down momentum so far.

The early momentum in this contest was expected to rest with David Miliband, the heir presumptive for many, but Diane Abbot’s surprise entry into the race scuppered that somewhat. The learning from the 2007 election that the front runner in terms of nominations would not necessarily triumph, due to the importance of second and third preference votes, led many to the conclusion that the momentum lay with Ed Miliband’s insurgent campaign – that David Miliband’s first preference support had reached a natural ceiling and that his brother was winning the battle for second and third preferences. The big unions falling in behind Ed Miliband was taken as further evidence of his momentum, as was the endorsement of Neil Kinnock. Neil retains huge affection in the Labour movement and backed Harriet in 2007.

Ed Balls has created some momentum by running a sparky issue-based campaign and scoring some direct hits on the ConDem government. Andy Burnham surprised many by winning the support of Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher, but the more aggressive his public statements become (Andy, not Jamie that is), the more desperate he seems. The outsider can only gain headlines by making the kind of statements that confirm their outsider status – it’s a pernicious self-fulfilling prophecy.

Polls and surveys have proven to be problematic indicators in this race because of the difficulties of modelling an electoral college in which MPs second and third preferences are what Donald Rumsfeld would term ‘known unknowns’. As Anthony Wells has written on the UK Polling report blog:

“on YouGov’s current figures, David Miliband is ahead, but this is based solely upon the Trade Union vote and some quite flimsy assumptions about how MPs second preferences will split. The big trade unions have mostly endorsed Ed Miliband, and once they contact their members urging them to back Ed it may well shift the trade union vote in his favour. Equally, we really do have very little information on MPs second preferences, so the MP section of the college really could go either way.”

So after all the heat and light, it still seems to be neck and neck. In an election in which the level of information known about candidates is low, there is still time to gain late momentum through crafting messages that have ‘stickability’. David Miliband seems, wisely in my view, to have moved onto a narrative about being ready to govern. It’s negative campaigning, and a risk, but in my view the right position for him to put himself in to win waverers. His late addition of MP nominations taking him to the 100 mark is also a fillip.

One final way in which a campaign may gain momentum of course is for a candidate to do a Cruddas and declare how they will cast their second preference. But that won’t happen this time. Will it?