Tribal voters are a dying breed

By Richard Darlington

Tribal British voters are a dying breed. New polling by YouGov for IPPR shows that almost two thirds of voters say that more than one political party represents their views and values. Less than one in five say that only one party comes close to reflecting their views and values and that they are strongly opposed to all others. It’s not just retail politics, it seems that British voters are becoming more promiscuous as they become less tribal.

Earlier this year, IPPR published a report assessing First-Past-the-Post and found that the last election was decided in just 111 constituencies by fewer than 460,000 voters – just 1.6% of the electorate. No wonder that one in five voters say they have engaged in ‘tactical voting‘ and voted for their second choice under the current voting system.

Supporters of AV often over state their case. AV is not a proportional system and it will not increase voter turn-out but it is a better system than First-Past-the-Post at reflecting the pluralism of the modern electorate. There is no such thing as a perfect electoral system but AV will make politics more competitive and make politicians appeal for votes from a wider section of society.

Minor parties like the Greens and UKIP might increase their share of the vote but they will still struggle to win seats. The influence of minor parties will grow by virtue of the major parties seeking their second preference votes but extremist parties like the BNP will be penalised by AV and their recycled votes will not influence election outcomes.

Although AV will undoubtedly help the Lib Dems, AV will not lead to permanent coalition, nor will the Lib Dems be made the king-makers of British politics. The biggest driver of hung Parliaments is not the electoral system but voting behaviour and hung parliaments are here to stay, whether elections are held under AV or First-Past-the-Post .

Richard Darlington is Head of News at the Institute for Public Policy Research