What can we expect from the Lib Dems in the next four days?

By Grace Fletcher-Hackwood / @msgracefh

Local Lib Dems across the country have been on a trajectory of desperation for the lifetime of this coalition. In their initial euphoria at being part of one of the parties of government, it seemed to take them a while to notice the horror of many of their voters at Nick Clegg’s willingness to part with what passed for his soul.

But then there was the June budget. And then there was the tuition fee betrayal. And then, there was the devastation of the local government settlement. Voters in parts of the country that have mercifully remained largely Tory-free for years – such as Manchester, to pick an example not entirely at random – found that they’d inadvertently voted for Tory cuts to their pools, their parks and their Sure Start. The ‘controlled explosion‘ spats within the coalition are doing nothing to convince voters that there is any distance between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in government – it’s not so much painting over the cracks as painting on the cracks.

It should be no cause for Labour complacency, and I haven’t seen any evidence that it has been. The Lib Dems are by no means necessarily going to be wiped out on Thursday – and where they do lose votes, we cannot assume that they will lose them to us. But every Labour activist that I know has been working hard over the last year to get Labour’s message out, to talk to voters about how the cuts are affecting them, and to combat the Tories’ lies. The question is – what have the local Lib Dems been saying all that time?

We’ve seen a number of responses. Lib Dem Sheffield’s council budget – much praised by Nick Clegg – was an impressive exercise in cuts denial: a one-year budget made on the basis of a two-year local government settlement, storing up deeper cuts for next year when the Sheffield Lib Dems will no longer be in power. Scores of individual councillors, including council or group leaders, have spoken out against the national party; some have taken it further and resigned from the party, like the Blackburn, Rochdale and Manchester Lib Dems who have defected to Labour, the Conservatives, or to go independent. (This is, of course, unlikely to do Manchester defector Cllr Dobson any favours, since it turns out that all he can do as an independent is produce bad leaflets about trees. The Lib Dems have, of course, put up another candidate, and it’s an unpredictable ward, but if Kevin Peel isn’t the councillor for Manchester City Centre ward by Friday, I will eat my cat.) Some, like another Manchester Liberal Democrat, John Cameron, have seen the writing on the wall and quietly scarpered – and they haven’t been easy to replace, as the Lib Dems have fielded their lowest number of candidates across the country since 1999.

But the most common local Lib Dem response seems to be to try and front it out. The Manchester Lib Dems are backing every aspect of coalition policy with the exception of tuition fees: Simon Ashley, the leader of the Manchester Lib Dems, claimed that Manchester got a ‘fair settlement‘ from the government.

The Tories can say stuff like this without having to answer for it locally – Manchester’s Tory candidate in Gorton South, Taiwo Muyiwa Opesan, has put out an almost entirely fictitious leaflet, appearing to claim, for instance, that the coalition have brought back free prescriptions. But the Lib Dems know they can’t get away with it. And this is why they’ve been plumbing new depths, even by Lib Dem standards, for something – anything – to fill the gaping spaces on their leaflets and to put voters off asking awkward questions.

Let’s stay in Gorton South for the first example, because this is where the aforementioned Simon Ashley has taken an almost impressively cheap shot: attacking members of Manchester’s Roma community for selling the Big Issue. Trying to distract the public from your own disastrous unpopularity by pointing fingers at some of the most disadvantaged people in Europe – never mind the Orange Book, this is ‘Scapegoating for Dummies’.

And while we’re on the subject of racial tension – have you heard the one about the Bristol Lib Dems, who are taking the time in every canvassing call to remind voters of the Labour candidate’s full name, apparently under the impression that Tory-Lib Dem policies don’t seem so bad once you find out that the Labour candidate is called Khan?

The list goes on. There’s the Lib Dem councillor in Liverpool who was elected at the age of 21 but is attacking his Labour opponent for seeking election at the age of 18 and the Lib Dem councillor in Rusholme, where I live, whose latest leaflet mentions no less than four times that he was awarded an MBE by the Queen. It makes you wonder what they’re going to come up with to get them through the next few days. Here are a few suggestions.

Monday – Nick Clegg and Lib Dems everywhere answer all questions with “…hey, how about Bin Laden, eh?”

Tuesday – Political Scrapbook reveals that Lib Dem election addresses around the country feature Royal Wedding pictures photoshopped to show the candidate dancing with Pippa Middleton.

Wednesday – With hours to go until polling stations open, the time seems right for a rebranding exercise. Lib Dems announce that September will see the publication of a book of policy essays: the working title is Chameleon Book, as, thanks to facial recognition technology, the colour of the book cover changes depending on who is reading it.

Thursday – Fearing that his attempts to portray separation between his party and the Conservatives have not worked, Nick Clegg takes advantage of a polling day press conference with the Prime Minister to slap David Cameron upside his shiny head while crying “Step outside, posher boy!”

Friday – Er. Recounts?

In Lab-Lib marginal areas, the next four days are all about Labour hard work versus Lib Dem desperation. I’ll be back next week to blog about which approach won in Manchester.