Here come the bribes

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

One of the worst kept secrets in British politics today is that George Osborne is planning a 2014/15 tax giveaway. His strategy – to get the pain of the cuts out of the way early to give the Treasury a pre-election cash boost – is so transparent, and so politically astute, it has hardly been remarked on by the mainstream press.

That’s the big bribe coming down the line from the government – vote Tory and there will be more tax cuts to come:

“Who needs the state anyway? Local services will be decimated, but who uses them anyway? Not you that’s for sure. Now vote Tory and enjoy your tax cut.”

It’s a maddeningly smart political move.

Of course it relies on a strong economy – something which is far from certain. But since the chancellor can effectively choose when the cuts end, he is holding all of the cards. If Osborne decides to bring deficit reduction to an end short of the line in order to deliver pre election tax cuts then Labour, who have been calling for less cuts and slower deficit reduction, will have no response. We’ll be left doing complex economic contortions to try and attack the plans. And it probably won’t work.

Osborne will argue that he has delivered a stronger economy, and has still been able to cut taxes. He’ll also boast privately that he has overturned much of Labour’s 1997-2010 investment, but don’t expect that to be a public message.

It’s a smart plan, and it could win the next election – but it’s a few years away from fruition yet.

But today there’s a story that suggests the bribes are coming faster than we first thought. Nick Clegg – desperate for attention on his trip to Brazil – has floated the idea of handing over shares in government owned banks Lloyds and RBS to the electorate. Instead of being sold (or preferably reformed, grown – then sold), the electorate would, en masse, receive a windfall from the Treasury. Rather than focussing on delivering a profit for the Treasury and reducing the deficit (allegedly the prime motive for everything this government does), the public would instead be the ones to reap the rewards.

It’s understandable why Nick Clegg would want to float such a plan. Handing shares to every person on the electoral roll is certainly one way of boosting your mangled reputation. But it isn’t consistent at all with the economic policies of this government which, let’s not forget, Clegg is notionally the deputy leader of. While a slowing of the deficit reduction strategy, if that’s what this is, should be welcomed, it shouldn’t be at the expense of prudent management of the government’s assets.

In short, it’s looking increasingly likely that the coming years are going to see attempts by the government to bribe you, in the hope that you forget about the cuts, the unemployed and the disadvantaged. It will be Labour’s job to note how hypocritical such “giveaways” are, and catalogue, relentlessly and doggedly, the impact of such freebies.

If we fail, then the Tories will sail back into power in 2015, with a mandate for further tax cuts.

And no amount of money in your pocket will compensate for what they’ll do to the country then.