Something has changed…have the Lib Dems?

By Emma Burnell / @scarletstand

It is far too early to tell what effect the News International scandal is going to have on the future of the British media. It is even too early to tell what effect it will have on the premiership of David Cameron and the fate of the Tories.

But something was different this week. The narrative shifted. The opposition reported in the press was all Labour. The Lib Dems have been nowhere to be seen. No longer was the story “coalition splits” but about the tireless campaign of two Labour backbenchers Tom Watson and Chris Bryant and the effective dissection of Cameron by Ed Miliband at PMQs and in the media since.

Will this be permanent? Probably not. Splits are an interesting story. Lib Dems complain that the media don’t understand coalition when they report on splits, but frankly this is for show. The fact is they are desperate to burnish their oppositional credentials and being the opposition within is a perfect way both of doing so and of cutting Labour out of the picture. Those who complain about it now will miss it if – as I predict – it slowly ebbs away as we approach an election at which their impact is likely to be marginal.

It’s possible the government will decide not to oppose Labour’s motion on Wednesday to delay any decision on BSkyB. That they will play a statesmanlike “not every party has the monopoly on wisdom” role, and minimise their defeat by being seen as colluding in the right decision. This kind of tactical U-turn is hardly unheard of from David Cameron. But from all we’ve heard so far that doesn’t seem likely. Some of the key parts of the Conservative family are already on the offensive. It does not feel like a coincidence that the day we learned that senior News International journalists have threatened to make it personal about Ed in retailiation for his rightly attacking the position of Rebekah Brooks, Conservative Home started to attack Ed’s spinner Tom Baldwin. How neatly coordinated.

What Cameron will have to decide is whether to front a humiliating position with his party on the wrong side of public opinion in the belief that the News International empire will rise again. And rise with enough clout to have been worthy of all this pain and of the humiliation the Prime Minister is taking now. Will rise and support him and annihilate his enemies. It’s not totally unlikely. Nothing solid has changed yet. The banks remain unregulated and unrepentant, the press may well do so too.

Wednesday’s opposition day debate will be a test for the Lib Dems. Until Chris Huhne’s mealy mouthed words this morning, and Olly Grender’s spinning on Twitter that Labour are doing this for polling gain (please tell that to Tom and Chris, Olly) It was one I expected them to pass. We all know that were it not for Vince’s unfortunate premature articulation in front of a giggly blonde that he would have been trying his damndest to put the knackers on the BSkyB deal. We know it’s what the Lib Dems want. What Clegg and his party have to decide is do they want it enough to defeat the government?

What will the Lib Dems in government do? What will their backbenchers do? This feels like it should be a simple question. There’s nothing in the coalition agreement to force them to vote for Murdoch. If they don’t they can prove their mettle and their plaintive cry of being a separate party. If all the Lib Dems – from Clegg on down vote against, the Tories can be defeated on this issue. But there will be hell to pay for the Lib Dems. They can kiss goodbye to any – even slight – chance they had of Lords reform, for example. I also predict they won’t gain much in the polls either, their invisibility on the issue means that the public see this as Labour’s thing. Labour have rightly won this issue.

Will doing the right thing be worth the political pain for the Lib Dems? I hope so.