Sorry George – you can’t have it both ways

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Today the world will discover what George Osborne already knows – how much trouble the British economy is in. The excuses are being rolled out already. Last time the economy shrank snow was to blame. This time we’re told that the Royal Wedding is the cause of a weak quarter. Osborne needs these excuses, but they won’t convince anyone. Anything less than 0.8% growth from the last quarter and the growth projections for the year become fantasy economics.

So the chancellor will need to be honest today about both his own failings, and the other reasons for lacklustre growth. He’ll need to admit that more could be done to stimulate growth. But there’s one very plausible excuse that isn’t available to him. One that in an interlinked global economy we’ll increasingly need to consider – the international dimension. Greece, the eurozone crisis and the US budget deadlock. These are all factors in sluggish growth – but Osborne can’t cite them with any credibility.

Back in 2008, when the global financial crisis threatened to plunge Britain from recession into the murky waters of depression, Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling took decisive action to safeguard the British economy. Yet they also pointed out that many of the reasons behind Britain’s recession could be found overseas.

Yet the Tories never bought this line. Blinded by ideology, they believed that it was Brown’s spending that was the problem. International finance may have tipped Britain over the edge, but it was Brown’s handling of the economy that was to blame, they argued.

How Osborne will wish he hadn’t pushed that line now. As he announces today’s GDP figures, he won’t have a compelling narrative for why it isn’t his fault. If he had only listened to Gordon Brown a few years ago he’d have a ready made line to work with, but he has trashed Brown too much and too often now to start using his lines.

There’s an international element to Britain’s stalling economy, that’s for sure, but if Osborne tries to push that line today, he’ll look like a hypocrite – and deservedly so.