In praise of two Johns, and a changing of the guard

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Just because you know something is coming doesn’t mean that it can’t take you by surprise. That there was a reshuffle on the way was the worst kept secret in Westminster (or Liverpool, last week), and the presumption was that it would fall a the end if this week. But for it to kick off with two senior resignations was a surprise. Especially considering who those shadow cabinet members were.

John Healey may have given the oldest excuse in the book (spending more the with his family) for resigning – and he wasn’t having the best of times in the health brief – but in his case it’s probably best to take things at face value. Healey doesn’t spin, and he doesn’t send out coded messages. He’s also completely straight, and that’s why so many of his peers like and respect him. It can also get him into trouble too of course. He won’t give the glib and partisan answer when he can give the accurate one. His work on the NHS, whilst not attracting the headlines he would have wanted, hasn’t received the credit it deserved either – especially for some of the hard graft away from the limelight. John Healey is one of the most honest,dedicated and thoughtful politicians I’ve ever had the pleasure to meet. Perhaps he wasn’t suited to his role – only he will ever know that – but I genuinely hope he comes back to the top table one day.

The loss of the other John – Denham – was more of a surprise. He’s one of Ed Miliband’s staunchest supporters and seemed to be settling quietly and methodically into the business role, preparing the ground for years of opposition. Appearances can be deceptive though. Denham actually told Ed Miliband back in July that he wanted to leave the shadow cabinet at the next reshuffle. If so, it’s astonishing that news didn’t leak.

There are many reasons why he might have felt that it was time to move on. Although he doesn’t look it, he’s nearly sixty – and unlike his former shadow cabinet colleagues he has a marginal southern seat. Denham trades his shadow cabinet position for the role of Ed’s PPS, which has previously been held by thrusting and impressive new comes Umunna and Dugher. That’s a change that heralds a new style for Ed – those newcomers should now ascend to the shadow cabinet, the PPS role (as Ed’s eyes and ears in the PLP) will be held by a different kind of politician entirely.

And what of the newcomers? Who will complete a meteoric rise from PPC to shadow cabinet in just 18 months? Don’t believe anyone who tells you they already know. In recent weeks hacks of all different stripes have been playing a game called “name the future Labour star”. Today’s winner is Gregg McClymont, but yesterday it was someone else. It’s all a guessing game to some extent.

That said, it is possible to make some educated guesses. Michael Dugher surely must be set for a promotion now that Denham has replaced him as Miliband’s PPS (his third in a year). Rachel Reeves looks likely to take on the shadow chief secretary position, with Angela Eagle taking on a shadow departmental role of her own. Liz Kendall has received so many mentions it seems beyond coincidence – and she could even take on the top health brief. And there are others I’d like to see promoted – Lisa Nandy and Stella Creasy have carved out their own niche for themselves on the back benches for example – but that’s perhaps wishful thinking, rather than something which is likely to happen.

The 2010 intake will make significant strides in the final reshuffle, but there won’t be many breaking through to shadow cabinet level. In the parlance of the time, that would be too far and too fast. There are also many talented MPs who we elected in 2005 who are worthy of promotion, but haven’t been given the star billing of some of their newer colleagues. Despite the demise of shadow cabinet elections, Ed will want to strike a sensible balance between PLP harmony and promoting some potential stars.

A change is needed though. Sometimes over the past year, Labour’s opposition has looked tired and sometimes irrelevant. Some in the shadow cabinet seem to pine for the days of government and find opposition a wretched slog. Others seem to labour under the impression that the party is still in government, such is their approach to coalition policy. Many have even struggled to achieve name recognition even amongst the readers of this blog, which doesn’t inspire confidence that they’re secretly wowing the voters. A little bit of energy and enthusiasm from the new crop of MPs should give the shadow cabinet an adrenaline shot, and the sprinkle of (potential) stardust that it currently lacks. The changing of the guard has begun.