Comeback Ken?

Today’s poll for the Evening Standard by YouGov has – as the editor of Labourlist tweeted today – put a spring in Labour members’ steps.

YouGov finds that Ken Livingstone has now taken a lead in the London Mayoral election – 46% for Ken, 44% for Tory incumbent Boris Johnson and 7% for Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick. After second preferences are allocated, Ken wins by 51% to 49% after second preferences.

This compares with a Comres poll in November that had Boris Johnson on 54% and Ken on 46%. And the last YouGov http://cdn.yougov.com/today_uk_import/yg-archives-pol-yougov-londonmayoralelection-210611.pdf poll, in June, had the incumbent seven points ahead in the first round, with Johnson on 48% and Ken on 41%.

Of course it is one poll. We will get many more and we must be level-headed. But that does not mean we cannot draw some conclusions. And one of those is that what Kevin Maguire has called ‘Comeback Ken’ is a genuine possibility.

This has been achieved because of Ken and his London Labour campaign. The press is largely sympathetic to Boris Johnson, and still likely to back him. Johnson enjoys many of the benefits of incumbency. Many on our own side have been gripped with pessimism. Some have been outright hostile. Yet our team in London has worked relentlessly and stayed focused. Ken’s main plank has been his fares cut, which has disconcerted the Tory party at every level. He has built around this a number of other messages that reinforce that Ken is the candidate most on your side.

What the poll shows is that the central message of the campaign has reached people. The Standard’s leader column today argues: “What matters is the extent to which the candidates appear in touch with Londoners’ concerns.” Peter Kellner says today that “Boris’s new year problem is that he is seen as increasingly out of touch.” Ken may be behind on charisma but he is ahead on being in touch. The numbers saying Boris Johnson is “in touch with the concerns of ordinary people” has slumped since June from 20% to 13%. Ken already led on this attribute, on 37%, but his rating has risen to 40%.

The mayoral race is not going to be a purely party-label contest. Local issues of policy and personality also apply. The problem we have encountered so far has been a proportion of electors who do not see Boris Johnson as particularly Tory and who find his personality entertaining. Yet even in those polls where Ken has been behind, he has led on many attributes – notably that he is more in touch with ordinary people. Our campaign has worked relentlessly to shift the election onto that question. It has achieved clear results. There is a long way to go, but it shows that whoever sets the terms of the debate is in with a clear chance. The election is now wide open.

A clear message has been coupled with unprecedented activity. Sometimes, reading the tweets and coverage online, it has seemed there have been two campaigns. There has been the real Labour campaign, with hundreds mobilised for phone banks, action days, Fare Deal campaigning and voter ID. It has broken ground with YourKen.org and with its text campaigning and brilliant videos. Then there has been the received wisdom of the commentariat, often ill-informed and weighed down with cynicism. If there is one lesson from today, it is that Ken has been right to ignore the naysayers and get to work.

Boris Johnson has got things wrong. He has failed to understand the pressure Londoners are under over rising costs and declining living standards. He’s refused to stand up for people over the impact of the government’s policies, such as EMA and student fees. His staged rows with the government often make him more of a Tory than his own front bench – notably on the top rate of tax. His obsession with vanity airports and vanity buses are unappealing when people are being squeezed. His second job, earning £250,000 for the Daily Telegraph even as he raises Londoners’ fares and cuts their police, shows him to be totally out of touch.

We can now expect a massive, brutal onslaught by Boris Johnson’s disorganised campaign. Our own side must show resolve to get fully behind Ken and fight his corner when this is unleashed. Boris Johnson’s main media backers have been attacking Ken for months. This poll will make them redouble their efforts.

But can he do it? Yes he Ken.

Tom Copley is a Labour list candidate for the London Assembly