A major boost for Labour – a crumb of comfort for the Tories

So Boris is back in City Hall for four more years. I’m already reading about different scenarios that could lead to him being the next Prime Minister. But let’s face it, the way things are going for his party at the minute, next Leader of the Opposition might be a more realistic aspiration.

Friday’s results are a major boost for Labour and Ed Miliband. Over 800 council seats gained, taking control of major towns and cities across England and Wales, including in the south, and restoring a majority in Glasgow against the Nationalists. These are significant achievements and are frankly more than I’d dared hope for.

Of course no one should get overly excited just yet. It remains to be seen whether these advances are just par for the course mid-term gains against the Westminster incumbents, or a sign of a more lasting shift. But suddenly those ten point opinion poll leads seem just that bit more credible.

After a difficult start to the year, the last few months have been far kinder to Ed Miliband. Bradford West aside, virtually all the major political goings-on have been to the detriment of David Cameron and the Conservative Party. Cash for access. Jerry cans. Double dip. Granny taxes. Jeremy Hunt’s “rogue” special adviser. Two arrogant posh boys who don’t know the price of milk.

The succession of gifts presented to Labour has been quite staggering, and by-and-large they have taken advantage. Miliband’s performances in the Commons have been strong. He got on the front-foot quickly on reform of party funding. Ed Balls has been driving home the message that he called it right on the danger of a return to recession.

And yet, there remained a sense that these elections could potentially derail Labour’s momentum and put the pressure firmly back on Ed Miliband’s shoulders. If Labour lost London and Glasgow, and failed to make sufficient breakthroughs elsewhere, the questions of leadership would rear their heads again.

But this hurdle was comfortably cleared. Labour were the clear winners on the night, and Miliband’s leadership is strengthened. He was right to avoid triumphalism, and to reach out to those who did not feel moved to vote at all – an alarming two-thirds of the population. Inwardly though, I have no doubt he will be feeling a deep sense of satisfaction and relief.

The London Mayoral result has been widely seen for exactly what it is: a crumb of comfort on an otherwise gloomy night for the Tories, based on the personal appeal of a man who polls way ahead of his party in the capital. I have to confess, I don’t quite get that personal appeal, especially in a Mayor who seems to coast along with precious few achievements. Ken, for all his faults, had a list of accomplishments of which to be proud. Boris’s accomplishments? Pass.

In sum, this was a good day and night for Labour. The recent poll leads have been reflected in a real election, and the Tories’ recent difficulties show no sign of abating. It seems a re-shuffle will now be the next attempt to stop the rot. But if they’re pinning their hopes on putting Chris Grayling and Grant Shapps around the Cabinet table, I think they really are in trouble.

Oh and before I finish, I should say word of the Liberal Democrats. Here we go. The Liberal Democrats were also standing in these elections.

Simon Fitzpatrick works on financial policy at Cicero Consulting.