This week in Europe – Guess who’s back?

Guess who’s back? The Dutch Labour Party, that’s who. The Partij van de Arbeid had been written off and left for dead. Attacked on the right by the governing Liberals, eroded from the Left by the GroenLinks – ‘GreenLeft’ – party and in danger of being permanently eclipsed by the rising Socialists, for the PvdA, it wasn’t a question of winning the 2012 election, but surviving it.

And yet, suddenly, they might just do exactly that. They’ve gone from chumps to contenders, and suddenly, Diederik Samson, the PvdA’s young leader, has gone from the forgotten man of Dutch politics to the rising tide.

Going into the televised debates, everyone expected the election to be fought between the centre-right Mark Rutte – the seemingly untouchable Prime Minister, who, like a right-wing version of the Duracell Bunny, keeps going no matter what scandals may rock him or crises may break up his government – and the  far-left Emile Roemer, a popular ex-teacher who is the most well-liked politician in the Netherlands.

But in front of the cameras, Roemer looked like what he is: a populist politician without any real answers to the pressing questions of the time. There’s a reason why so many of the disgruntled upper-working-class voters who went for the far-right Geert Wilders are now considering the Socialist Party: they are both, at base, parties that trade off anti-politics. “[Samson] did his debating very well,” Roemer whined to Reuters, “But voting is more than winning a debating competition.”. The problem is, the slick and handsome Samson didn’t just beat Roemer on style, he whomped him on substance, too.

The brutal reality is that Roemer’s policy solutions don’t make sense. He’s opposed to austerity in the Netherlands, but supports the imposition of austerity in Greece and Spain. His easy bromides – more money for things we like! Extra cash for veterans and public services! Less money to the Eurocrats and the grafting Greeks – fell apart on television. Samson, in contrast, while opposing Rutte’s economic sado-masochism, didn’t duck the hard questions about the Eurozone crisis. As Rutte and Roemer both vowed not to lend Greece another cent, Samson frankly explained that a Greek rescue may be vital to save Europe.

His frankness won him praise, and now the PvdA is surging and the Socialists are falling back. If the Labour Party’s upward trajectory continues until the 12^th of September, then they will beat the Liberals to first place.

But what then? Coalitions are an inevitability in the Netherlands, and, for whoever wins, the path to seventy-six seats – a majority in the House of Representatives – will not be easy. For Labour, the ideal scenario would be a government comprised of themselves, D66 – basically the Oakeshott tendency of the Liberal Democrats – and GroenLinks. But barring a sudden revival in the fortunes of Labour’s old allies, that won’t be enough. An alliance with the populist Socialists, similar to the one that Rutte forged with the far-right Freedom Party – in which Geert Wilders sat out of government but supported Rutte’s ministry ‘from outside’ – might be a goer, but, having seen how Wilders held Rutte hostage before bringing down the Liberal coalition over a trivial issue, Labour might prefer a more lasting coalition.

That leads them back to the arrangement that underpinned their last significant stay in government – a ‘purple’ coalition with their right-wing opponents – one that would secure a long-term majority, and might allow the Netherlands to pursue a sensible deficit reduction programme, coupled with fiscal stimulus. But the purple option brought the Dutch Labour Party to the brink of extinction. It would be very brave to do it again.

This Week’s European Talking Points

• It’s all gone to helle, Thorning-Schmidt! Only a year ago, Danish Social Democrats danced in the streets as Helle Thorning-Schmidt ended a decade-long exile from government and sent the right-wing packing. But it’s been a draining, difficult year for the Social Democrats and their three-party coalition. The far-left Red Green alliance has been an unreliable partner at best, the ongoing investigation into Thorning-Schmidt’s tax affairs continues to dominate attention – last week, she was forced to deny rumours that her husband was a homosexual – meaning that voters aren’t clear what the government has actually achieved. Current polls put the Liberals and their allies way ahead. Fortunately, fear of a meltdown may prevent the Red Green alliance from causing an early election, and, if the Social Democrats’ medicine is given time to work, they may yet bounce back.
• The French Socialists are looking for a way to discreetly ditch the 75 percent tax. The policy made great politics but is turning out to be distinctly sub-par economics. Facing a mass exodus of higher-rate taxpayers to perfidious Albion, the PS is searching for ways to implement the 75 percent rate without actually implementing a 75 percent rate. Pierre Moscovici told the Financial Times that the rate would be implement in ‘an intelligent manner’. According to the French media, that looks to mean ‘at 67 percent’.
• Silvio Berlusconi was questioned about payments made to the Sicilian Mafia. He claims he was not paying the Italian Senator, Marcello Dell’Utri, hush money, but was simply helping a friend in need. He is still expected to contest the next election.
• Who’ll take on Angela Merkel in the German elections? The answer, it seems, is “Not Sigmar Gabriel”.  He’s just had a baby girl and wants to spend more time with his family, and has essentially ruled himself out of contention for Germany’s top job. That means that the Social Democrats may turn again to Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the former Foreign Minister who led the SPD to its worst ever result of modern times in 2009.