PCC elections: How Labour’s vote changed – and the swing from the Tories to Labour

I’ve noticed that no one seems to have calculated the notional change in the Labour vote between the 2010 General Election figures calculated by the Police Foundation, and the Police & Crime Commissioners elections on 15 November, nor the Conservative to Labour two-party swing in the same period.

So I thought I would.

The resulting tables, ranked by how Labour performed, are below. I’ve noted where the figures are particularly distorted by there only being two candidates. The obvious caveats about these being very low turnout elections with strong independent candidates apply.

For comparison, the YouGov opinion poll on polling day in the PCC elections suggests national voting intentions with a rather higher, 14%, increase in the Labour vote since 2010, and a swing of about 8.5%.

If people have local intel that explains particularly strong or weak outcomes below, please share in the comments.

PCC area Change in Lab vote
Dyfed-Powys 26.5% 2 horse race
North Yorkshire 22.7% 2 horse race
Staffordshire 17.0% 2 horse race
Suffolk 13.8%
Northumbria 11.0%
West Yorkshire 10.4%
Greater Manchester 10.2%
Hertfordshire 9.9%
Derbyshire 9.7%
Thames Valley 8.4%
South Yorkshire 8.3%
West Mercia 7.1%
Warwickshire 7.0%
Bedfordshire 6.7%
Durham 6.3%
Leicestershire 6.3%
Nottinghamshire 6.0%
Wiltshire 5.3%
South Wales 5.2%
Sussex 5.0%
West Midlands 4.0%
Merseyside 4.0%
Lancashire 4.0%
Hampshire 3.6%
Surrey 3.5%
Cambridgeshire 3.5%
Avon & Somerset 3.3%
Norfolk 3.1%
Devon & Cornwall 0.2%
Dorset -0.1%
Northamptonshire -1.4%
Cleveland -1.5%
Essex -2.1%
Gwent -2.9%
North Wales -3.4%
Gloucestershire -3.9%
Cheshire -4.1%
Humberside -6.2%
Cumbria -6.2%
Lincolnshire -8.7%
Kent -10.1%
PCC area    Swing from Con to Lab
Surrey 16.2%
Hampshire 14.2%
Suffolk 12.5%
West Yorkshire 11.1%
Nottinghamshire 11.1%
Greater Manchester 11.0%
Thames Valley 11.0%
Cambridgeshire 11.0%
Derbyshire 10.9%
Warwickshire 10.4%
Sussex 10.0%
Bedfordshire 9.9%
West Midlands 9.2%
Durham 9.0%
Wiltshire 8.5%
Essex 8.5%
West Mercia 8.4%
Avon & Somerset 8.4%
Northamptonshire 8.4%
Dorset 7.9%
Kent 7.8%
Hertfordshire 7.3%
Norfolk 7.3%
South Yorkshire 7.2%
Devon & Cornwall 6.9%
Lincolnshire 6.9%
Leicestershire 6.8%
South Wales 6.6%
Merseyside 6.3%
North Wales 6.1%
North Yorkshire 5.7%
Gwent 5.3%
Humberside 4.5%
Lancashire 4.1%
Northumbria 3.9%
Staffordshire 3.4%
Gloucestershire 2.9%
Dyfed-Powys 2.8%
Cumbria 2.2%
Cheshire -0.1%
Cleveland -1.7%

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