The “do something” consensus is piling pressure on Ed Miliband

There’s an interesting splash in the Indy this morning that claims the Shadow Cabinet are coaelscing around plans to spend more than George Osborne is planning to – or to put it another way, to reject Tory spending plans and the limitations of that.

It’s entirely plausible that the Shadow Cabinet will come to that decision at some point, but they aren’t there yet. The Independent piece leans heavily on a report from the Fabian Society, and although the Fabians are influential in Labour circles, that doesn’t automatically mean their pamphlet will be adopted wholesale as party policy.

On the contrary, a source in the shadow Treasury team texted me this morning describing the Indy piece as “total rubbish”, as well as saying:

“As we have always said, we will not make our tax and spending commitments until the time of the election…it would be irresponsible to do otherwise.”

In reality, today’s Indy splash seems less like a clear indication of Labour policy, and more like the latest phase in a growing consensus in the party – let’s call it the “do something” consensus. Blair’s comments last week could be part of it. Anyone urging Ed Miliband to form any particular hard and fast policy position is part of it (that includes me then). Friends of Miliband who want him to be bolder are part of it. Critics who want him to change course are part of it too. Even Compass – who are broadly supportive of the Miliband agenda – have caught him with something of a broadside today. Their “Future Shock” paper argues that if Miliband doesn’t sketch out a clear enough vision, and that he could be buffeted in office in the same way that Francois Hollande is suffering in France.

All of a sudden the Labour Party’s fears have shifted, rather than fearing Miliband is a Kinnock – some now fear he could be a Hollande.

And until Labour’s policy agenda is cleared sketched out, rather than talking about a new settlement as Miliband is expected to do in Scotland today, the “do something” consensus will only grow.

Yet those who wish for greater policy definition, or a keynote policy idea (building millions of homes, for example) in the next few months are likely to be disappointed. As Jon Cruddas told the One Nation conference yesterday, that would be to “put the cart before the horse” – although there is still the possibility that the policy review timetable that I sketched out in February may still apply.

It’s also argued – with increasing credibility – by Miliband’s team that Labour in opposition has sketched out a significant amount of policy, something which it is rare in British politics. The 10p tax announcement coupled with plans for a Mansion Tax a couple of months ago was a policy with genuine “cut through” in the media, plans to tax bankers bonuses to pay for training for young people is appealing, and re-establishing full employment as a principle in the economy could be the silver bullet. Miliband fleshed out some of this agenda in an interview with Shifting Grounds recently.

The problem is not that Labour doesn’t have enough policy, or even that it’s not good enough. Instead, the problem is that too much of what Labour is saying is abstract and a bit vague. The debates at the One Nation conference yesterday were necessarily academic – but so say that many of the ideas underpinning One Nation Labour are not “leaflet ready” would be an understatement. Pre-distribution is only the tip of the abstract iceberg.

Much of the frustration stems from the fact that we’re three years into opposition, which would normally be when party policy begins to harden – but we’re also in new territory, as thanks to fixed term parliaments we know we’re still two years from the next election. AThat means the impetus for announcing policies, making spending commitments and exciting the party (and the country) just isn’t there. Even though many Shadow Cabinet members would love to be announcing policies now, as long as Ed Balls controls the spending commitment reigns, don’t expect to see the final contours of Labour’s spending plans until late 2014 at the earliest – regardless of the growing “do something” consensus.

The Miliband prospectus for Britain could well be radical – but for the forseeable future, don’t expect fireworks…