The phoney war is over – last days of calm before the storm

If it weren’t so worrying it would be hilarious. Even Lynton Crosby, according to the Sunday Times, didn’t really like those Home Office vans with their 1970s throwback messages on illegal immigrants. In a meeting with the lobbying firm Westbourne, the paper reported yesterday, Mr Crosby was said to have expressed disappointment that the vans had created a row about tactics, and had given Nigel Farage more free publicity. There were votes to be won on the issue of immigration, apparently, but this wasn’t quite the way to try and win them.

The whole truth about this tasteless episode has not yet emerged. Can such a vigorous and controversial PR initiative like the poster vans really be launched without Mr Crosby’s approval? I suspect we may be in “Abilene paradox” territory here, where a decision has been taken that subsequently few (if anyone) seem to have supported. That’s the generous interpretation, anyway. Others may have a harsher and perhaps more accurate one.

The upshot of a turbulent last few weeks in Westminster is a Conservative poll rating in Sunday’s YouGov poll of… 32%. Some other pollsters register a lower Tory score. Which is not to say that Labour has had a good few weeks. The party was embarrassed by the announcement of Jim Messina’s appointment as a Conservative adviser for the next election. George Mudie’s expressions of doubt about Labour’s prospects are shared by other MPs who have not yet spoken up publicly. The criticism is made, regularly, that Labour should be further ahead, and that even though there is a lead on voting preference underlying measures – competence to run the economy, Ed Miliband’s leadership – reveal the flimsiness of that lead and the bigger obstacles the party is yet to overcome.

Miliband has been praised for rejecting the photo opp and glib soundbite approach to party leadership. He has hugged no hoodies and wept no false tears over shrinking glaciers. With 22 months still to go to the election, it is probably right not to have revealed a fully worked out programme for government.

And yet one of the lessons from the New Labour era which should not be cast aside is Alastair Campbell’s observation that the media abhors a vacuum. If few announcements are made or positions set out, the space will be filled by opponents and by readily generated knocking copy. In the past I have praised the leadership’s “masterly inactivity”. It is now time to put apparent (if not actual) “inactivity” to one side. The game’s afoot, as Henry V says in that speech before the battle of Agincourt. Miliband’s conference speech in less exotic Brighton will have to be a good one, with plenty of content and a strong, clear sense of the direction policy will take.

The stakes are high. All general elections matter. But the intensity of the Tory attacks, and the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband that is surely being planned, point to this being a real turning-point election. Think of the consequences for the Conservatives if they lose office. The temporarily suppressed civil war on Europe will break out. Ukip, even without winning a seat, may receive another huge boost. Austerity economics will have been rejected, and a Labour alternative will have been made possible. The post-Thatcher legacy will be fought over with renewed energy, with potentially damaging consequences for the party. If the Tories can muster only about a one third share of the vote, as they did in 2005, they may never win a majority under this voting system ever again.

This is not an outcome some powerful people will welcome. And this in part explains, I think, why much of the press has, after some hesitation, decided to play its traditional role of attacking Labour and (broadly) supporting the Tories. Mr Crosby has dazzled many in SW1, and his charm and agreeable manner with colleagues have been remarked upon. Then there is the unfinished Leveson business. Nods and winks from Conservative ministers suggest they are reluctant to support the all-party Royal Charter which they themselves (the clue is in the “all-party” bit) have signed up to. Many – and not just Tories – wonder nervously what might emerge from the anticipated Rebekah Brooks and Andy Coulson trials. So of course the press is tense, and not feeling inclined to write positively about a Labour leadership which, they feel, has put the future of their industry in question.

Adding a layer of complexity and confusion to this is further nervousness ahead of the Chilcot enquiry’s final report, which will make very difficult reading for a number of people. Mr Cameron will be the prime minister who has to handle the government’s response, but others will be apprehensive about how Ed Milband chooses to play it, too.

These are the pressures and conflicting tensions that are mounting. An attempt will be made, as it was in 1992, to suggest that economic recovery will be put in danger by the election of a Labour government. This is why, for Labour, soundness and credibility on the economy is so vital. But it will also fall to Ed Miliband and his team to hit back at the constant accusation that he is weak, and prove his critics wrong. That is the leadership that George Mudie (and others) are looking for now.

It is going to be a lively and highly challenging autumn, so we all might as well try and enjoy a bit of holiday while we still can. See you in September.