A question for 2014: which side are you on?

“In the bleak midwinter, frosty wind made moan” begins one of my favourite carols. (An accurate forecast this December, as it’s turned out.) We can make this forecast as far as the political weather is concerned: the long, 17 month general election campaign is underway. Brace yourselves. It’s going to be a drawn-out and unrelenting affair.

Labour should be entering 2014 in pretty good heart. It has a steady if not decisive poll lead. It has recovered well from a dismal result three and a half years ago. There has been no destructive infighting. And the party seems to have reclaimed the support of many who voted LibDem in 2010. Yes, an economic upturn has finally arrived. But most are not feeling any particular benefit from it yet, and do not seem likely to do so for many months to come.

So why is there a sense of anxiety among some Labour activists, MPs and supporters? Why is there not more confidence as the party looks ahead? Some fear that 2015 will turn out to be a replay of 1992 – with a soft and illusory poll lead crumbling into eventual defeat. Others argue that the leadership is failing to set out its ideas with sufficient clarity. The energy price freeze and the cost of living debate have served Labour well. And yet the party is behind on perceived economic competence and on the appeal of its leader as a potential prime minister. If more voters start feeling better off the Conservatives will regain support and be returned to power, the doubters say.

In fact Labour has established a platform from which it should be able to go on and win. It is in the party’s own hands, as Peter Mandelson said on the Andrew Marr show yesterday. The question is whether enough people want and believe in the possibility of victory.

The leadership, and Ed Miliband in particular, face an uneven fight. His words and actions are reported by a highly sceptical and at times explicitly hostile media. In contrast, for most of his time as Tory leader David Cameron has enjoyed a different and more helpful media response – in the worst cases, a curious blend of stenography and (metaphorical) fellatio. Miliband has challenged the conventional wisdom in terms of policy and presentation. He has invited people to think, rather than aiming for safer, more familiar territory. But he has done so without the full-throated support of front-benchers and others. In the Parliamentary Labour party he has been short of vocal friends.

We are now entering the latter stages of this fixed term parliament. It will very soon be make your mind up time, for the party as well as the electorate. In the words of the traditional (and unavoidable) question: which side are you on? Do you want four or five more years of Conservative(-led) government, or do you want something else?

If Rafael Behr’s recent New Statesman blog had it right, some in the party feel the leader’s office is not really accessible to them. In turn the top team feel they do not get enough loyalty and support from colleagues. It sounds like a bit of a stand-off, and not a very healthy one. Constructive engagement on both sides is needed. Leaders have to lead, but leaders also need support to be able to do so.

Shakespeare’s Richard II – not really an ideal leadership role model – tells his followers that they have misunderstood him. He is not some lofty and detached figure, he says:

“For you have but mistook me all this while:
I live with bread like you, feel want,
Taste grief, need friends…”

Miliband needs, and deserves, political friends. In just over three years he has taken the party from its 29% level of support at the last election to the brink of power. To go on and win Labour has to be both credible and different, Miliband has said. It’s true. Without credibility any party is unelectable. But offering more of what is already available will not win (or deserve to win) new support.

Labour’s probable policy mix – fiscal responsibility with a purpose, reform of banking and finance, universal childcare, a new deal on long term care for the elderly, a push for a living wage for the low paid, rapid and large-scale housebuilding – is a winning one, if it is presented clearly and forcefully. The team has to be led from the front, but the team also has to play like a team.

In the last verse of “In the bleak midwinter” there is another resonant line:

“If I were a wise man I would do my part.”

Anyone who really wants a Labour victory in 2015 will have to play their part, starting now.