Don’t look in the crystal ball, read the book (or speeches)

“My beliefs will run through everything I do. My beliefs, my values are my anchor, and when people try to drag me, as I know they will, it is to that sense of right and wrong, that sense of who I am and what I believe, to which I will always hold.”

We were warned. Ed Miliband’s party conference speeches have received, inevitably, a lot of attention, but it was his first speech as leader in September 2010 which set out his approach most directly. As Miliband prepares to offer more detail in tonight’s Hugo Young lecture on what a new Labour government will do in office, it’s worth pausing for a moment to assess how well he has done against the tests he set himself nearly three and a half years ago.

Without disowning the New Labour record, or damning its leaders, Miliband nonetheless made it clear in September 2010 that the last Labour government had come to the end of the road. “We began as restless and radical,” he said. “Remember the spirit of 1997. But by the end of our time in office we had lost our way.”

And he went on: “The most important lesson of New Labour is this: Every time we made progress we did it by challenging the conventional wisdom.”

So here already was a clue that this next phase of Labour’s policy development was going to involve some radicalism and a challenge to orthodoxy. The next passage is worth re-reading too:

“New Labour, a political force founded on its ability to adapt and change lost its ability to do so. The reason was that we too often bought old, established ways of thinking, and over time we just looked more and more like a new establishment.

“Let me say to the country: You saw the worst financial crisis in a generation, and I understand your anger that Labour hadn’t changed the old ways in the City of deregulation. You wanted your concerns about the impact of immigration on communities to be heard, and I understand your frustration that we didn’t seem to be on your side.

“And when you wanted to make it possible for your kids to get on in life, I understand why you felt that we were stuck in old thinking about higher and higher levels of personal debt, including tuition fees.

“You saw jobs disappear and economic security undermined, I understand your anger at a Labour government that claimed it could end boom and bust. And I understand also that the promise of new politics of 1997 came to look incredibly hollow after the scandal of MPs’ expenses. And we came to look like a new establishment in the company we kept, the style of our politics and our remoteness from people.

“I stand before you, clear in my task: to once again make Labour a force that takes on established thinking, doesn’t succumb to it, speaks for the majority and shapes the centre ground of politics. And I tell you this: if we are not this party, nobody will be.”

In the three party conference speeches that followed, Miliband developed this argument. In the 2011 “predators and producers” speech he set out a critique of irresponsible capitalism, and “bad business”. In the 2012 “one nation” speech he tried to offer a unifying Labour story, and his own pitch for the centre ground. And in last year’s “Britain can do better than this” speech Miliband said more about an economy that could work better for most people.

Critics along the way have complained about a lack of detail, or a lack or urgency behind these themes. The Labour leadership has been pacing itself for a five year parliament. There are still 15 months to go to the election. But in this final phase the work of Jon Cruddas’ policy review will be unveiled, and a fuller (and genuinely radical) programme put forward. Labour is planning to show how you can be a progressive government when resources are severely limited. It is a daunting challenge, but serious work has been going on away from the public’s gaze. Another hint is contained in the Hugo Young speech, with the suggestion that unresponsive state services can do as much damage as unaccountable businesses.

Elections are, as the cliché has it, “ a marathon, not a sprint”. But that metaphor is no good while the Winter Olympics are on. Miliband has been portrayed by some as another Eddie the Eagle ski-jumper, doomed to flop. But in truth he has been Steady Eddie, plotting out the route to No.10 he first described on becoming leader in September 2010.

Fifteen months to go, and a winning argument continues to be made.