Why Labour could be the biggest loser from Clegg vs Farage tonight

The last time Nick Clegg went head-to-head with Nigel Farage, Labour airily dismissed it as “a lightweight battle between two men who will never be Prime Minister.” That may be strictly true, but the public are also intelligent enough to know that both men willl play an integral part in affecting the final result in 2015. Besides, why tell people they shouldn’t pay attention to a debate given most think there should be more of them?

When Clegg debates Farage again today, I hope Labour is sharper in its response, because it could easily hurt the party much harder than the Tories.

Imagine, for a brief moment, a voter who had left Labour in disgust over [Iraq / anti-terrorism laws / civil liberties etc], and reluctantly voted for the Lib Dems in 2010. After the big betrayal he or she switched back to Labour after 2010. They probably think both parties break promises, but at least Miliband isn’t in bed with the Tories.

Remember that Labour is riding higher in the polls than its abysmal 29% showing in 2010 primarily due to ex-Lib Dem voters.

Nick Clegg knows this too, which is why over the next year he will keep reaching out to them. Last week ‘plain speaking’ Farage was expected to wipe the floor with him, but Clegg surprised most people by coming out swinging and doggedly attacking until the end. Farage increasingly resorted to tired cliches and started hectoring. Clegg in contrast looked like he was standing up for liberal values.

Even though Farge clearly ‘won’ the debate, most of Clegg’s support came from Lib Dem and Labour leaning voters. Nigel Farage may have many admirers, he is also viscerally hated by most liberals and lefties. This works perfectly for Clegg because those are the people who abandoned him and the ones he wants back.

People like me, who joined Labour in 2010, won’t give him a second look of course. But not all ex-Lib Dems are tribally pro-Labour as the party assumes.

In an era where most people think politicians sound the same, Clegg’s differentiation strategy has clear benefits. He will continue to paint himself as Farage’s nemesis and Cameron’s thorn-on-the-side until 2015. This is exactly what the wind-farms leak yesterday was about.

So here’s the problem for Labour: if Clegg does better than last week and better positions himself as Nigel Farage true nemesis, many ex-Lib Dem voters may warm to him. And that is a much bigger problem for Labour than the Tories. And that is why Labour should take today’s debate much more seriously than they did last week.