One year to go – 5 dates that will define Labour’s massive year

We are now into an election year, at long last. After four years of coalition government, we’re into the final straight. And what a daunting final straight it looks for Labour. The polls have narrowed – with Labour just one point ahead of the Tories in two polls this morning – and a Labour victory is far from certain. A bold offer to the British electorate will be necessary to banish complacency in Labour’s ranks and rally the ground troops who can deliver victory.

But although there’s a whole year to go until election day, it’s already possible to pick out 5 key dates that could make or break Labour’s election year. Those are:

May 22nd – A massive electoral challenge is faced by Labour in late May. UKIP are pulling ahead in the polls for the European elections, whilst the Tories are falling back into third place. Meanwhile in the local elections, Labour looks set to make substantial gains in metropolitan areas that are traditionally strong for the party. How Labour fares in the final national poll before 2015 will be crucial – failing to win doesn’t bear thinking about, even William Hague managed to win the European elections…

July 18th – Labour’s National Policy Forum meets in Milton Keynes in July, starting on the 18th and running until the 20th. This is where some of the big decisions about Labour’s manifesto will be made, and where the choice between “shrinking the offer” and going radical could be decided. Striking the balance between credible and radical will be crucial, but putting the building blocks in place for an eye catching manifesto will happen in July in Milton Keynes, or it won’t happen at all.

September 18th – The Scottish Independence referendum is the biggest political day not just of the next year of British politics, but potentially in the next 100 years of British history. If Scotland leaves the union, then the whole of British politics will be thrown into turmoil (what’s left of Britain, that is). It’ll also throw the Labour Party into despair too, but frankly, worrying about Labour’s electoral prospects is small beer compared to losing a substantial chunk of the nation. For Cameron and Miliband – and all of us in the UK – September 18th is a make or break day.

September 23rd – Only five days after the Scottish Independence referendum, Ed Miliband must make the biggest speech of his life. If Scotland has just left the union, then the pressure on his conference speech will be bigger still. Regardless though, this will be one of his last chances before the short campaign to get unrestricted national media attention. That means both unveiling another major policy to the British public – a genuine game-changer, like the energy price freeze or bigger – and looking like a potential Prime Minister. He won’t get another shot at this. It could be his last conference speech as Labour leader. Or it could just be his last as opposition leader. This needs to be Miliband’s big moment – not to pacify his party this time, but to win over a nation.

March 18th – Just two weeks before Parliament heads into recess for the election, George Osborne has a Budget scheduled. You can already imagine what he’s planning – tax cuts will only be a small part of the planned pre-election bribe of the electorate. Expect balancing the books to go out of the window if the Tories are more than a handful of points behind in the polls. Osborne will offer giveaways that he can’t justify, and either work out how to pay for them after the election, or leave Labour to clean up afterwards. Watch out for unexploded landmines Ed (and Ed) – they’ll be everywhere on March 18th. And of course if we’re not ahead in the polls by March 18th, it’ll be incredibly hard to come back, because Osborne will leverage that final, massive day to his advantage.