Yesterday’s Ashcroft poll that showed a 6.5% to Labour in the battleground marginals has put a spring in the step of many Labour staffers, activists and candidates after a mixed bag of results on Thursday – and ahead of a tough looking night of European election results.
Perhaps the most eye catching claim from Ashcroft as he announced his polling was that if the swing he’s recorded in the battleground seats he polled is replicated across the full set, Labour would take 83 seats that the Tories won in 2010. Taking away Corby which Labour has already taken in a by-election, that means there are 82 Tory MPs who would lose their seats if the Ashcroft poll comes true. That would deliver a 32 seat majority for Labour, and that’s before counting gains from the Lib Dems.
However, it’s important to remember that this is only a poll – albeit a very thorough one. On Thursday there were actual elections that showed us falling back thanks to UKIP in areas like Thurrock, Basildon and Great Yarmouth that the Ashcroft poll would see us winning next year. It does suggest though – as Labour staffers were arguing ahead of election day – that the focus on marginals is seeing some rewards.
So which Tory MPs would lose their seats?
Frontbenchers who are at risk: Edward Timpson, PUS Children and Families; Esther McVey, Minister for Employment; Stephen Crabb, PUS for Wales and Whip; Brandon Lewis, PUS CLG; David Mundell, PUS Scotland; Nicky Morgan, Financial Sec to Treasury and Minister for Women; Kris Hopkims, Minister for Housing; Anna Soubry, Minister for Defence Personnel, Welfare and Veterans.
Backbenchers who are at risk: Robert Halfon, Jacob Rees Mogg, Charlie Elphicke and Chloe Smith.
Here’s the full list:
| Region | Seat | Held by | Lab | Con | Winner | Lab Maj |
| Eastern | SOUTH BASILDON & EASTTHURROCK | Stephen Metcalfe MP Con | 37.5% | 37.4% | Lab | 0.1% |
| West Midlands | BURTON | Andrew Griffiths Con | 38.4% | 38.0% | Lab | 0.3% |
| West Midlands | RUGBY | Mark Pawsey Con | 37.9% | 37.5% | Lab | 0.4% |
| South East | READING WEST | Alok Sharma Con | 37.0% | 36.7% | Lab | 0.4% |
| South East | CRAWLEY | Henry Smith Con | 38.8% | 38.3% | Lab | 0.5% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | CALDER VALLEY | Craig Whittaker Con | 33.5% | 32.9% | Lab | 0.6% |
| London | FINCHLEY & GOLDERS GREEN | Mike Freer Con | 40.2% | 39.5% | Lab | 0.7% |
| London | BATTERSEA | Jane Ellison Con | 41.6% | 40.8% | Lab | 0.8% |
| South West | BRISTOL NORTH WEST | Charlotte Leslie Con | 32.4% | 31.5% | Lab | 1.0% |
| North West | CREWE & NANTWICH | Edward Timpson Con | 40.5% | 39.3% | Lab | 1.2% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | BRIGG & GOOLE | Andrew Percy Con | 39.6% | 38.4% | Lab | 1.3% |
| Wales | PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE | Stephen Crabb Con | 37.7% | 36.3% | Lab | 1.4% |
| London | ILFORD NORTH | Lee Scott Con | 40.7% | 39.2% | Lab | 1.5% |
| Wales | ABERCONWY | Guto Bebb Con | 31.0% | 29.3% | Lab | 1.7% |
| Eastern | HARLOW | Robert Halfon Con | 40.2% | 38.4% | Lab | 1.8% |
| West Midlands | STOURBRIDGE | Margot James Con | 38.2% | 36.2% | Lab | 2.1% |
| West Midlands | STAFFORD | Jeremy Lefroy Con | 39.5% | 37.4% | Lab | 2.1% |
| Eastern | PETERBOROUGH | Stewart Jackson Con | 36.0% | 33.9% | Lab | 2.2% |
| North West | SOUTH RIBBLE | Lourraine Fullbrook Con (NB standing down) | 41.2% | 39.0% | Lab | 2.2% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | COLNE VALLEY | Jason McCartney Con | 32.9% | 30.5% | Lab | 2.4% |
| South East | DOVER | Charlie Elphicke Con | 40.0% | 37.5% | Lab | 2.5% |
| West Midlands | DUDLEY SOUTH | Chris Kelly Con | 39.5% | 36.6% | Lab | 2.9% |
| Eastern | GREAT YARMOUTH | Brandon Lewis Con | 39.7% | 36.6% | Lab | 3.1% |
| South West | NORTH EAST SOMERSET | Jacob Ress Mogg Con | 38.2% | 34.8% | Lab | 3.4% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | CLEETHORPES | Martin Vickers Con | 39.1% | 35.6% | Lab | 3.4% |
| North West | ROSSENDALE & DARWEN | Jake Berry Con | 38.7% | 35.3% | Lab | 3.5% |
| South East | MILTON KEYNES SOUTH | Iain Stewart Con | 38.7% | 35.1% | Lab | 3.6% |
| East Midlands | HIGH PEAK | Andrew Bingham Con | 38.1% | 34.4% | Lab | 3.7% |
| Eastern | NORWICH NORTH | Chloe Smith Con | 37.9% | 34.1% | Lab | 3.8% |
| Scotland | DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESDALE & TWEEDDALE (W) | David Mundell Con | 35.4% | 31.5% | Lab | 3.9% |
| Wales | VALE OF GLAMORGAN | Alum Cairns Con | 39.4% | 35.3% | Lab | 4.2% |
| Wales | CARMARTHEN WEST & SOUTH PEMBROKESHIRE | Simon Hart Con | 39.2% | 34.6% | Lab | 4.5% |
| Eastern | WATFORD | Richard Harrington Con | 33.2% | 28.4% | Lab | 4.8% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | ELMET & ROTHWELL | Alec Shelbrooke Con | 41.0% | 36.1% | Lab | 4.9% |
| Eastern | STEVENAGE | Stephen McPartland Con | 39.9% | 34.9% | Lab | 5.0% |
| North West | PENDLE | Andrew Stephenson Con | 37.4% | 32.4% | Lab | 5.0% |
| London | EALING CENTRAL & ACTON | Angie Bray Con | 36.6% | 31.5% | Lab | 5.1% |
| South West | SOUTH SWINDON | Robert Buckland Con | 40.8% | 35.3% | Lab | 5.5% |
| West Midlands | WARWICK & LEAMINGTON | Chris White Con | 41.9% | 36.1% | Lab | 5.8% |
| London | HARROW EAST | Bob Blackman Con | 44.1% | 38.2% | Lab | 5.9% |
| East Midlands | LOUGHBOROUGH | Nicky Morgan Con | 41.0% | 35.1% | Lab | 5.9% |
| West Midlands | CANNOCK CHASE | Aidan Burley Con | 39.6% | 33.6% | Lab | 6.0% |
| North West | WIRRAL WEST | Eather McVey Con | 42.8% | 36.0% | Lab | 6.8% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | KEIGHLEY | Kris Hopkins Con | 42.3% | 35.4% | Lab | 6.8% |
| West Midlands | WORCESTER | Robin Walker Con | 39.9% | 33.0% | Lab | 6.9% |
| London | CROYDON CENTRAL | Gavin Barwell Con | 40.0% | 33.0% | Lab | 7.0% |
| North West | CITY OF CHESTER | Stephen Mosley Con | 41.6% | 34.1% | Lab | 7.5% |
| North West | BLACKPOOL NORTH & CLEVELEYS | Paul Maynard Con | 43.0% | 35.3% | Lab | 7.7% |
| East Midlands | EREWASH | Jessica Lee Con | 40.7% | 33.0% | Lab | 7.8% |
| South West | KINGSWOOD | Chris Skidmore Con | 41.8% | 33.9% | Lab | 7.9% |
| North West | BURY NORTH | David Nuttall Con | 41.7% | 33.7% | Lab | 8.0% |
| East Midlands | NORTHAMPTON NORTH | Michael Ellis Con | 35.8% | 27.6% | Lab | 8.2% |
| South West | GLOUCESTER | Richard Graham Con | 41.7% | 33.4% | Lab | 8.2% |
| West Midlands | NUNEATON | Marcus Jones Con | 43.4% | 35.0% | Lab | 8.4% |
| West Midlands | HALESOWEN & ROWLEY REGIS | James Morris Con | 43.1% | 34.7% | Lab | 8.4% |
| Eastern | IPSWICH | Ben Gummer Con | 41.2% | 32.6% | Lab | 8.6% |
| South East | HASTINGS & RYE | Amber Rudd Con | 43.6% | 34.6% | Lab | 9.0% |
| London | ENFIELD NORTH | Nick de Bois Con | 45.0% | 35.8% | Lab | 9.2% |
| South East | HOVE | Mike Weatherley Con | 39.5% | 30.2% | Lab | 9.3% |
| London | BRENTFORD & ISLEWORTH | Mary Macleod Con | 40.1% | 30.7% | Lab | 9.4% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | PUDSEY | Stuart Andrew Con | 41.6% | 32.0% | Lab | 9.6% |
| South East | BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN | Simon Kirby Con | 41.4% | 31.5% | Lab | 9.9% |
| Eastern | BEDFORD | Richard Fuller Con | 42.4% | 32.4% | Lab | 10.0% |
| North West | WARRINGTON SOUTH | David Mowat Con | 39.5% | 29.3% | Lab | 10.2% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | DEWSBURY | Simon Reevell Con | 38.7% | 28.5% | Lab | 10.2% |
| South West | PLYMOUTH SUTTON & DEVONPORT | Oliver Colvile Con | 38.2% | 27.8% | Lab | 10.4% |
| East Midlands | LINCOLN | Karl McCartney Con | 41.7% | 31.0% | Lab | 10.7% |
| North West | WEAVER VALE | Graham Evans Con | 42.8% | 32.0% | Lab | 10.7% |
| South West | STROUD | Neil Carmichael Con | 45.1% | 34.3% | Lab | 10.8% |
| North | CARLISLE | John Stevenson Con | 43.8% | 32.8% | Lab | 11.0% |
| North West | MORECAMBE & LUNESDALE | David Morris Con | 45.9% | 34.8% | Lab | 11.0% |
| West Midlands | WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTHWEST | Paul Uppal Con | 45.5% | 34.2% | Lab | 11.3% |
| Eastern | WAVENEY | Peter Aldous Con | 45.2% | 33.7% | Lab | 11.5% |
| East Midlands | AMBER VALLEY | Nigel Mills Con | 43.9% | 32.1% | Lab | 11.8% |
| North West | LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD | Eric Ollerenshaw Con | 41.8% | 29.6% | Lab | 12.2% |
| East Midlands | BROXTOWE | Anna Soubry Con | 44.8% | 32.5% | Lab | 12.3% |
| North | STOCKTON SOUTH | James Wharton Con | 44.8% | 32.4% | Lab | 12.3% |
| East Midlands | SHERWOOD | Mark Spencer Con | 45.3% | 32.7% | Lab | 12.6% |
| Wales | CARDIFF NORTH | Jonathan Evans Con | 43.6% | 31.0% | Lab | 12.6% |
| London | HENDON | Matthew Offord Con | 48.6% | 35.8% | Lab | 12.8% |
| Eastern | THURROCK | Jackie Doyle-Price Con | 43.1% | 30.3% | Lab | 12.8% |
| West Midlands | NORTH WARWICKSHIRE | Dan Byles Con | 46.6% | 33.7% | Lab | 12.9% |
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