Fabian research shows how “Ukip effect” threatens Labour – even in “safe” seats

As the general election fast approaches, further evidence has emerged which shows that Ukip pose a threat to Labour.

Research conducted by the Fabian Society, some of the findings of which we wrote about last week, shows that if local election results were replicated in 2015, 9 of the parliamentary seats Labour has a lead in would be under threat. The report forecasts that these seats would be divided between Ukip, who would get the lion’s share, taking 6 of the 9 seats, and the Tories who would claim 3, overtaking Labour as Ukip chips away its support. The Independent produced the following graphic showing the level and geographic spread of the problem:

Deeming this the “Ukip effect” The Fabians think this could undercut the Labour vote in vital Labour-Conservative marginals seats that could determine the election outcome. The report warns:

“If elections are about momentum, then the Conservatives seem to have more reason for optimism than Labour. Labour will need to up its game to have a chance of a majority in 2015.”

Talking to the Independent, Fabian Deputy General Secretary Marcus Roberts explained:

“The greatest threat to Ed Miliband’s hopes is the loss of blue-collar support. The Fabians have laid out how Labour can build a coalition of 2010 loyalists, ex-Lib Dems, new and non-voters and a few Conservative converts to win. But declining blue-collar support eats into its loyalist base and, crucially, the potentially sympathetic 2010 non-voters Miliband can’t do without.

“Labour needs a radical manifesto that deals with blue-collar concerns on issues like immigration and welfare but which also inspires broad public support with ideas like common ownership of railways.” 

These sentiments are echoed by former general election coordinator, Tom Watson MP who referring to this report, explained:

“This must be listened to at the top of the party. I think there is an added problem of the density of former special advisers who speak for Labour in a particular tone that is off-putting. We need more working-class voices at the top of the party.”

When Labour are losing the popular vote to UKIP in Labour held seats (including a few which the party considers safe in 2015) it’s probably time to change course…