Why Nigel Farage should want Ed Miliband to win in 2015

The panicked call by some Tories to form a pact with Ukip and ‘unite the right’ mirrors the state of Labour four years ago in many ways. The Conservatives can’t fathom why UKIP sympathisers would want to let Miliband in by wrecking their chances, just as Labour couldn’t understand then why many on the left abandoned Gordon Brown for the Greens, Lib Dems or the couch.

There are good reasons for UKIP voters to be angry. Cameron made big promises about curbing immigration that he has been unable to keep. He made promises about an economic recovery that have only led to their lives becoming more insecure as he cosies up to the City. Why should they trust him? Decades of broken promises and false dawns have made many want to give all  of Westminster a bloody nose.

You can see why the UKIP base hates the idea of a pact, but why the leadership? Why abandon the chance of wielding power deep inside the Conservative Party without having a single elected MP?

But why should Nigel Farage want to help the Tories win in 2015? If Farage wants to be in history books as a chapter than a footnote, he should want to stop Cameron winning in 2015.

Put aside whatever you think of Farage or Ukip for a second. Let’s conduct a thought experiment because it has relevance for the future of both Labour and the Tories.

Nigel Farage’s overriding political aim is that Britain has a referendum on membership of the EU and we choose to leave it. But if David Cameron stays on as PM in 2015 this dream would be shattered. Cameron would offer a referendum but would campaign (alongside his cabinet) to stay within the EU, as he has already indicated. The business community would rally behind him, while Labour and the Lib Dems would go along with him. A majority of Conservative voters will likely stay loyal to their leader and trust him to stand up for British interests. They would vote to stay within the EU along with a majority of Labour and Lib Dem voters.

If David Cameron is PM in 2017 then Britain will not only stay within the EU but the debate will be over for a generation. But if he loses the next election he would be replaced by a party leader who will, in all likelihood, be even more Eurosceptic. There would be more momentum for a referendum and for the UK to leave the EU.

Put the EU question aside too, briefly, and let’s turn to the broader context.

If Cameron wins in 2015 then he would have more leeway to derail the UKIP bandwagon. He would win a mandate to focus harder on cutting immigration and demanding concessions from Europe in return for staying inside. UKIP’s momentum would melt away and it would revert back to being a minor party with a small group of supporters rallying around a cause that most Britons would have moved on from. Farage’s moment in the sunshine would be over.

But there is, I think, an even bigger reason why Farage should pray for an Ed Miliband victory in 2015.

In many parts of England, UKIP have become the main party of opposition to Labour because the Tory brand remains too toxic.

If Labour becomes the party of government, Farage is better placed to take advantage of Labour’s mid-term unpopularity in these areas, not the Tories. The recent local elections made this painfully clear. That could reduce the Conservatives to being a party of opposition only in the south of England, fighting the Lib Dems, while UKIP slowly gains to become the main opposition elsewhere.

Given that UKIP can reach voters in areas the Conservatives can’t, giving them a wider pool of voters to attract, in ten years UKIP could usurp the Tories as the main party of opposition across Britain.

But that dream can only be realised if Nigel Farage sets his sights higher than a referendum – and Ed Miliband is elected Prime Minister in 2015.